TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087567
Played Sep 7Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115118––––
Tomas Dousa
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 53 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 27–29 Tomas Dousa Radim Pavelka has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:22What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Dousa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1540 vs Dousa 1534
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 20% vs Dousa 80%
Dousa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Dousa 70%
Dousa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -2 · Dousa +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.91 / Dousa 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavelka)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087567
Pavelka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 78 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Dousa1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 92 of 172
Up 2–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it72% 60 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka5wins
AwayDousa5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka57.1%4 of 7
AwayDousa66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka7Dousa3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka6Dousa4n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Pavelka3Dousa7n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka4Dousa5n = 9Dousa took 5 of 9
S5Pavelka3Dousa3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaDousaP − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.041.8+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime445 / 885 vs 347 / 70150.3%49.5%445 / 885 vs 347 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.91/Dousa 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 31 · 21:28R. Pavelka—111186113T. Dousa—96111182
WJul 31 · 19:30R. Pavelka—11511113T. Dousa—911681
WJul 3 · 17:30R. Pavelka—1111810113T. Dousa—89111272
LJul 3 · 15:30R. Pavelka—111091172T. Dousa—512119113
LJun 29 · 17:30R. Pavelka—9111181T. Dousa—11713113
WJun 29 · 16:30R. Pavelka—9111113113T. Dousa—114131182
LJun 15 · 14:30R. Pavelka—41151282T. Dousa—1171110113
WJun 8 · 14:30R. Pavelka—1111113T. Dousa—9450
LMay 26 · 14:30R. Pavelka—118119112T. Dousa—411911133
LMay 25 · 15:30R. Pavelka—116751T. Dousa—61111113
R. Pavelka10
LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792
T. Dousa10
WSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0012911113M. Vedmoch1.731011551LSep 7 · 14:30M. Sedlak1.611111113T. Dousa2.208860WAug 31 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801112113P. Fojt1.9181080WAug 31 · 20:00P. Fojt1.839270T. Dousa1.831111113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Kolar2.25691181T. Dousa1.5711118113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Dousa1.401111123Y. Holovatiuk2.7599100LAug 27 · 17:29R. Pavelka1.7381111113T. Dousa2.00117891WAug 27 · 16:00T. Dousa1.831115133J. Plachy1.83913110WAug 27 · 15:30K. Darin2.1011118862T. Dousa1.67591111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
T. Dousa
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.