TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087541
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114115––––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 63.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 13–20 Radim Pavelka Michal Vedmoch has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:13What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Pavelka
Wrong
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1654 vs Pavelka 1571
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 80% vs Pavelka 40%
Vedmoch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 80% vs Pavelka 50%
Vedmoch
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +3 · Pavelka +1
Vedmoch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 2.25 / Pavelka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pavelka)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087541
Vedmoch2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog45% won 120 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 78
Pavelka1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 104 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch2wins
AwayPavelka8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch33.3%1 of 3
AwayPavelka85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Vedmoch6Pavelka4n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S3Vedmoch5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Vedmoch4Pavelka4n = 8split evenly
S5Vedmoch1Pavelka6n = 7Pavelka took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochPavelkaV − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.242.1−3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime705 / 1312 vs 447 / 88653.7%50.5%705 / 1312 vs 447 / 886Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaVedmoch 2.25/Pavelka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 02:00M. Vedmoch—91151182R. Pavelka—118116113
LAug 25 · 20:00M. Vedmoch—6460R. Pavelka—1111113
LAug 24 · 17:30M. Vedmoch—51111742R. Pavelka—118411113
LAug 24 · 14:00M. Vedmoch—12118492R. Pavelka—1051111113
LAug 7 · 08:30M. Vedmoch—512371R. Pavelka—111011113
WJul 17 · 14:00M. Vedmoch—1111173R. Pavelka—52150
LJul 15 · 20:30M. Vedmoch—410111142R. Pavelka—111229113
LJul 13 · 19:00M. Vedmoch—11791132R. Pavelka—711117113
WJul 7 · 09:30M. Vedmoch—751111113R. Pavelka—11116482
LJul 7 · 06:30M. Vedmoch—611111282R. Pavelka—116914113
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Trefny1.909960M. Vedmoch1.801111113WSep 4 · 02:30J. Dedek2.385650M. Vedmoch1.531111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Plachy2.20411681M. Vedmoch1.6111611113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.571110111252J. Trefny2.25812814113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.801111123J. Prokupek1.9144100WSep 3 · 13:29J. Plachy2.107650M. Vedmoch1.671111113LSep 3 · 12:00J. Plachy2.2091111113M. Vedmoch1.61117941WSep 3 · 11:00M. Kolar2.758161151M. Vedmoch1.4011186113WSep 3 · 10:30M. Vedmoch1.801211113J. Prokupek1.9110880WSep 2 · 13:30J. Plachy2.00311651M. Vedmoch1.7311711113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191
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R. Pavelka
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