TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086939
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Malek
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611511––––
Jiri Plachy
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:39 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Malek above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 47 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Malek 1–3 Jiri Plachy Lukas Malek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Plachy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Plachy
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malek 1444 vs Plachy 1468
Plachy
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malek 20% vs Plachy 60%
Plachy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malek 30% vs Plachy 60%
Plachy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malek -2 · Plachy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Plachy) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalek 2.25 / Plachy 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Plachy)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086939
Malek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Plachy1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 142 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it97% 69 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it86% 101 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMalek1wins
AwayPlachy3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderPlachy leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malek2Plachy2n = 4split evenly
S2Malek3Plachy1n = 4Malek took 3 of 4
S3Malek0Plachy4n = 4Plachy took 4 of 4
S4Malek0Plachy3n = 3Plachy took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMalekPlachyM − PBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.540.2−5.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalekPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 405 vs 747 / 161048.4%46.4%196 / 405 vs 747 / 1610Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyMalek 2.25/Plachy 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 18 · 10:00L. Malek—111159113J. Plachy—88111182
LJan 20 · 12:00L. Malek—1111321J. Plachy—13411113
LJan 5 · 14:00L. Malek—8590J. Plachy—1111113
LJan 5 · 11:30L. Malek—11118752J. Plachy—461111113
L. Malek10
LSep 7 · 13:00V. Postelt1.20411811113L. Malek4.3311611852LSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113WSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971
J. Plachy10
WSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090WSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Plachy1.837880J. Prokupek1.831111113WSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:00J. Plachy1.801111113J. Prokupek1.916750LSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113
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