TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092735
Played Sep 7Finished
Vladimir Postelt
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411116811118115
Lukas Malek
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Lukas Malek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Vladimir Postelt at 59.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 2–0 Lukas Malek Lukas Malek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Postelt beat Malek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Postelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1469 vs Malek 1396
Postelt
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 40% vs Malek 20%
Postelt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 40% vs Malek 20%
Postelt
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -2 · Malek -3
Malek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Postelt) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 1.20 / Malek 4.33
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Postelt)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092735
Postelt1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 121 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it85% 96 of 113
Malek4.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 22 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePostelt2wins
AwayMalek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPostelt leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPosteltMalekP − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.029.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltMalekBasisWin rate · lifetime432 / 815 vs 196 / 40753%48.2%432 / 815 vs 196 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPostelt 1.20/Malek 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.1%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 7 · 13:00V. Postelt—411811113L. Malek—11611852
WSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt—1111113L. Malek—2690
V. Postelt10
LSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113LSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690LSep 6 · 02:59J. Plachy2.0011117113V. Postelt1.70491181WSep 6 · 02:30V. Postelt1.2811115113Y. Holovatiuk3.50751161LSep 6 · 01:30P. Fojt2.751111113V. Postelt1.402790LSep 6 · 24:00V. Postelt1.53108170J. Plachy2.381211193WSep 5 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.0061171182V. Postelt1.73114118113LSep 4 · 21:30M. Kolar1.9011118113V. Postelt1.80561181WSep 4 · 20:00J. Dedek2.757680V. Postelt1.401111113
L. Malek10
LSep 7 · 12:30L. Malek2.253650J. Plachy1.571111113LSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690WSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:30F. Briza1.531111113L. Malek2.387860LSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:30F. Jungman1.5311811113L. Malek2.38711791LSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113WSep 4 · 12:00D. Parhomenko1.441112661L. Malek2.6371411113LSep 4 · 11:00M. Kolar2.25111111113L. Malek1.57139971
Upcoming Matches
V. Postelt
Sep 7 · 22:00V. Postelt1.83J. Prokupek1.83—Sep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.38D. Kouble1.53—Sep 8 · 01:00V. Postelt1.50P. Fojt2.50—Sep 8 · 02:30V. Postelt1.33J. Dedek3.25—Sep 8 · 22:00V. Postelt2.38M. Vedmoch1.53—Sep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.50R. Krejci1.50—Sep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt1.80J. Trefny1.91—Sep 9 · 02:00V. Postelt1.61R. Pavelka2.20—
L. Malek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.