TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092779
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Vedmoch
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171161214118––
Jan Trefny
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Vedmoch to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vedmoch above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Michal Vedmoch at 60.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vedmoch 5–5 Jan Trefny Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:08What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vedmoch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vedmoch 1628 vs Trefny 1577
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vedmoch 60% vs Trefny 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vedmoch 50% vs Trefny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vedmoch +2 · Trefny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Vedmoch) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVedmoch 1.44 / Trefny 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Vedmoch)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092779
Vedmoch1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 206 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it96% 104 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it80% 159 of 198
Trefny2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 27 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVedmoch5wins
AwayTrefny5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVedmoch80%4 of 5
AwayTrefny80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vedmoch5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S2Vedmoch5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S3Vedmoch7Trefny3n = 10Vedmoch took 7 of 10
S4Vedmoch2Trefny3n = 5Trefny took 3 of 5
S5Vedmoch1Trefny2n = 3Trefny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVedmochTrefnyV − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.135.6−0.5per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVedmochTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime709 / 1316 vs 54 / 10853.9%50%709 / 1316 vs 54 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VedmochVedmoch 1.44/Trefny 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Vedmoch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 03:30M. Vedmoch—1111113J. Trefny—9960
LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vedmoch—1110111252J. Trefny—812814113
LSep 1 · 08:00M. Vedmoch—41113692J. Trefny—1171111113
WAug 31 · 10:30M. Vedmoch—1171111113J. Trefny—13114532
WAug 26 · 01:30M. Vedmoch—1111123J. Trefny—79100
LJul 30 · 02:30M. Vedmoch—8550J. Trefny—1111113
WJul 21 · 02:58M. Vedmoch—1111113J. Trefny—9960
LJul 20 · 23:30M. Vedmoch—81060J. Trefny—1112113
WJul 15 · 18:30M. Vedmoch—15117113J. Trefny—1361171
LJul 15 · 14:30M. Vedmoch—331151J. Trefny—11115113
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.53141110113V. Postelt2.381281291WSep 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa2.25111111342M. Vedmoch1.57132811113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721WSep 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.008870M. Vedmoch1.731111113LSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143LSep 7 · 21:30J. Hradecky1.4011137123M. Vedmoch2.7571111101WSep 7 · 20:00T. Janata1.40591351M. Vedmoch2.75111111113WSep 7 · 19:00L. Krticka2.10111180M. Vedmoch1.671313113LSep 7 · 18:30M. Vedmoch2.2011990J. Hradecky1.611311113
J. Trefny10
WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113
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J. Trefny
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