TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091750
Played Sep 9Finished
Vladimir Postelt
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113911––––
Jan Trefny
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Postelt above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 66 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Postelt 3–4 Jan Trefny Vladimir Postelt has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1429 vs Trefny 1568
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 20% vs Trefny 60%
Trefny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 30% vs Trefny 50%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt -3 · Trefny -1
Postelt
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.00 / Trefny 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Trefny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091750
Postelt2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 47 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Trefny1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePostelt3wins
AwayTrefny4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderTrefny leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePosteltn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTrefny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt1Trefny6n = 7Trefny took 6 of 7
S2Postelt2Trefny5n = 7Trefny took 5 of 7
S3Postelt4Trefny3n = 7Postelt took 4 of 7
S4Postelt2Trefny3n = 5Trefny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricPosteltTrefnyP − TBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match37.036.9+0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 822 vs 55 / 11052.7%50%433 / 822 vs 55 / 110Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyPostelt 2.00/Trefny 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt—101190J. Trefny—1213113
LSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt—1081151J. Trefny—12114113
WAug 26 · 03:28V. Postelt—1112118113J. Trefny—41491162
WAug 26 · 02:30V. Postelt—711611113J. Trefny—11711472
LAug 22 · 23:30V. Postelt—5680J. Trefny—1111113
WAug 18 · 13:30V. Postelt—101111113J. Trefny—126651
LAug 18 · 11:30V. Postelt—861191J. Trefny—11115113
V. Postelt10
LSep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.5010770R. Krejci1.501211113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.53141110113V. Postelt2.381281291LSep 8 · 02:30J. Dedek3.251111113V. Postelt1.338380WSep 8 · 01:00P. Fojt2.5081040V. Postelt1.501112113LSep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.3894100D. Kouble1.531111123LSep 7 · 22:00V. Postelt1.83791371J. Prokupek1.83111111113WSep 7 · 13:00V. Postelt1.20411811113L. Malek4.3311611852LSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113LSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:00V. Postelt1.401111113L. Malek2.752690
J. Trefny10
LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113
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