TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099730
Played Sep 8Finished
Jiri Plachy
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117115––––
Jan Trefny
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Jan Trefny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 6–7 Jan Trefny Jiri Plachy has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Trefny beat Plachy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Trefny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1517 vs Trefny 1584
Trefny
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 80% vs Trefny 60%
Plachy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 70% vs Trefny 50%
Plachy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy -1 · Trefny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 2.10 / Trefny 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Trefny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099730
Plachy2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 177 of 423
Down 0–1, comes back22% 51 of 236
Down 0–2, comes back6% 7 of 128
Trefny1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 24 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy5wins
AwayTrefny5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy66.7%4 of 6
AwayTrefny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy6Trefny4n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Plachy5Trefny5n = 10split evenly
S3Plachy4Trefny6n = 10Trefny took 6 of 10
S4Plachy6Trefny3n = 9Plachy took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyTrefnyP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.338.0+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyTrefnyBasisWin rate · lifetime748 / 1610 vs 53 / 10646.5%50%748 / 1610 vs 53 / 106Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.535.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyPlachy 2.10/Trefny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Plachy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:30J. Plachy—117681J. Trefny—91111113
WSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy—11118113J. Trefny—891151
WSep 7 · 10:30J. Plachy—11119113J. Trefny—571151
LSep 7 · 09:00J. Plachy—8111110122J. Trefny—117912143
WSep 7 · 07:00J. Plachy—11511113J. Trefny—911951
LSep 3 · 22:30J. Plachy—11641182J. Trefny—811119113
WSep 1 · 07:30J. Plachy—11118113J. Trefny—561191
LAug 26 · 24:00J. Plachy—9670J. Trefny—1111113
WAug 18 · 10:30J. Plachy—61112113J. Trefny—1181081
LAug 18 · 07:00J. Plachy—891171J. Trefny—11116113
J. Plachy10
LSep 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8312212113J. Plachy1.8310111051LSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:30J. Plachy1.441111113Y. Holovatiuk2.633250WSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:30L. Malek2.253650J. Plachy1.571111113WSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:00J. Svoboda1.361112113J. Plachy3.0051090
J. Trefny10
WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:00J. Trefny1.73911951J. Plachy2.0011511113
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