TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092958
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Dousa
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12102111210115––
Jiri Plachy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Plachy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Jiri Plachy below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 73 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jiri Plachy at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 26–37 Jiri Plachy Tomas Dousa has won 26 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Plachy beat Dousa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Plachy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-37 in 63
Plachy
Wrong
gap of 11 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1544 vs Plachy 1534
Dousa
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 60% vs Plachy 80%
Plachy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 60% vs Plachy 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa +2 · Plachy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plachy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plachy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 1.83 / Plachy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Plachy)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092958
Dousa1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Plachy1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa6wins
AwayPlachy4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa75%3 of 4
AwayPlachy50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa4Plachy6n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S2Dousa6Plachy4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Dousa6Plachy4n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S4Dousa5Plachy2n = 7Dousa took 5 of 7
S5Dousa2Plachy2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaPlachyD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.6−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaPlachyBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 699 vs 749 / 161149.5%46.5%346 / 699 vs 749 / 1611Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlachyDousa 1.83/Plachy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plachy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dousa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 18 · 16:58T. Dousa—911613113J. Plachy—119111192
LMay 18 · 14:30T. Dousa—101121162J. Plachy—126116113
WMay 16 · 01:30T. Dousa—1311113J. Plachy—11840
LMay 15 · 14:30T. Dousa—61020J. Plachy—1112113
WApr 26 · 14:30T. Dousa—12101110113J. Plachy—101291282
WMar 19 · 19:30T. Dousa—71111113J. Plachy—118891
LMar 7 · 04:00T. Dousa—129681J. Plachy—101111113
WMar 7 · 03:00T. Dousa—81111113J. Plachy—115881
LFeb 22 · 13:30T. Dousa—44111222J. Plachy—111181043
WFeb 22 · 10:00T. Dousa—1111133J. Plachy—78110
T. Dousa10
WSep 8 · 20:00J. Prokupek1.914890T. Dousa1.801111113WSep 8 · 19:00J. Dedek1.73561371T. Dousa2.00111111113WSep 8 · 17:00Y. Holovatiuk2.30119111172T. Dousa1.52131188113WSep 8 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk3.0078111142T. Dousa1.36111176113LSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113LSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580WSep 7 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0012911113M. Vedmoch1.731011551LSep 7 · 14:30M. Sedlak1.611111113T. Dousa2.208860
J. Plachy10
LSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8091110101J. Prokupek1.9111712123WSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750LSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:30J. Plachy1.441111113Y. Holovatiuk2.633250WSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:30L. Malek2.253650J. Plachy1.571111113WSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182WSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113LSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122
Upcoming Matches
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J. Plachy
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