TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092910
Played Sep 8Finished
Jaroslav Prokupek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Tomas Dousa
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Tomas Dousa below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Dousa at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 33–25 Tomas Dousa Tomas Dousa has won 25 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-25 in 58
Prokupek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1543 vs Dousa 1566
Dousa
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 60% vs Dousa 80%
Dousa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 60% vs Dousa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek +2 · Dousa +4
Dousa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dousa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 1.91 / Dousa 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousa)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092910
Prokupek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 106 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 78
Dousa1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 92 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it72% 60 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProkupek4wins
AwayDousa6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDousa leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProkupek50%2 of 4
AwayDousa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S2Prokupek4Dousa6n = 10Dousa took 6 of 10
S3Prokupek1Dousa9n = 10Dousa took 9 of 10
S4Prokupek5Dousa2n = 7Prokupek took 5 of 7
S5Prokupek3Dousa2n = 5Prokupek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricProkupekDousaP − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.942.7−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekDousaBasisWin rate · lifetime648 / 1360 vs 348 / 70147.7%49.6%648 / 1360 vs 348 / 701Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DousaProkupek 1.91/Dousa 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dousa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dousa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 20:30J. Prokupek—111117113T. Dousa—891981
LMay 26 · 15:30J. Prokupek—2650T. Dousa—1111113
LMay 15 · 23:00J. Prokupek—117101182T. Dousa—711128113
LMay 15 · 15:00J. Prokupek—10450T. Dousa—1211113
WApr 26 · 15:00J. Prokupek—118129113T. Dousa—511101162
LApr 11 · 16:30J. Prokupek—813281T. Dousa—111111113
WApr 7 · 16:00J. Prokupek—811811113T. Dousa—11711392
WApr 6 · 24:30J. Prokupek—512611113T. Dousa—111011882
LMar 23 · 19:30J. Prokupek—81240T. Dousa—1114113
LMar 20 · 21:00J. Prokupek—13871392T. Dousa—11111111113
J. Prokupek10
WSep 8 · 19:30J. Plachy1.8091110101J. Prokupek1.9111712123WSep 8 · 18:00J. Prokupek1.91118117113J. Dedek1.8091191182LSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113LSep 8 · 02:00P. Fojt2.25911911113J. Prokupek1.5711511752WSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.25118119143D. Kouble1.57911711122WSep 7 · 23:00J. Prokupek1.911111163J. Dedek1.8085140WSep 7 · 22:00V. Postelt1.83791371J. Prokupek1.83111111113LSep 7 · 09:29J. Svoboda1.40111111123J. Prokupek2.750138101WSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny1.507930J. Prokupek2.501111113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Prokupek3.2510670J. Svoboda1.331211113
T. Dousa10
WSep 8 · 19:00J. Dedek1.73561371T. Dousa2.00111111113WSep 8 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8312212113J. Plachy1.8310111051WSep 8 · 17:00Y. Holovatiuk2.30119111172T. Dousa1.52131188113WSep 8 · 16:00Y. Holovatiuk3.0078111142T. Dousa1.36111176113LSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:30T. Dousa1.9141181182J. Plachy1.80113118113WSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113LSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580WSep 7 · 15:30T. Dousa2.0012911113M. Vedmoch1.731011551LSep 7 · 14:30M. Sedlak1.611111113T. Dousa2.208860
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