TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092945
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117211911119511
Richard Krejci
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:37 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Richard Krejci below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Richard Krejci at 68.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 0–2 Richard Krejci Jan Trefny has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:37What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Krejci
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1568 vs Krejci 1613
Krejci
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 60% vs Krejci 40%
Trefny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Krejci 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +1 · Krejci -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Krejci) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krejci form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 3.50 / Krejci 1.28
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Krejci)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092945
Trefny3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 27 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Krejci1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTrefny0wins
AwayKrejci2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKrejci leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTrefnyKrejciT − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match32.041.5−9.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyKrejciBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 110 vs 185 / 34750%53.3%55 / 110 vs 185 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciTrefny 3.50/Krejci 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krejci won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 23 · 02:30J. Trefny—31060R. Krejci—1112113
LJul 21 · 01:30J. Trefny—111157112R. Krejci—591111133
J. Trefny10
WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113
R. Krejci10
LSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113WSep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.5010770R. Krejci1.501211113WSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480LSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670WSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113WSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113WSep 6 · 20:30R. Krejci1.807111011113T. Janata1.9111812682LSep 6 · 19:00R. Krejci2.007680M. Volf1.731111113
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