TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092961
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Krejci
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911811119311
Radim Pavelka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Krejci to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Krejci above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 91 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Richard Krejci at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Richard Krejci 8–5 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krejci
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Krejci
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krejci 1627 vs Pavelka 1532
Krejci
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krejci 60% vs Pavelka 20%
Krejci
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krejci 60% vs Pavelka 30%
Krejci
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krejci +2 · Pavelka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Krejci) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrejci 1.67 / Pavelka 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Krejci)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092961
Krejci1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Pavelka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 79 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrejci6wins
AwayPavelka4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrejci leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrejci66.7%4 of 6
AwayPavelka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krejci6Pavelka4n = 10Krejci took 6 of 10
S2Krejci6Pavelka4n = 10Krejci took 6 of 10
S3Krejci5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S4Krejci6Pavelka1n = 7Krejci took 6 of 7
S5Krejci1Pavelka3n = 4Pavelka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrejciPavelkaK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.6+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrejciPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 347 vs 445 / 88453.3%50.3%185 / 347 vs 445 / 884Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrejciKrejci 1.67/Pavelka 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Krejci · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 23:00R. Krejci—8660R. Pavelka—1111113
WAug 3 · 03:28R. Krejci—1111113R. Pavelka—4960
WAug 2 · 22:00R. Krejci—11911143R. Pavelka—7117121
LApr 25 · 24:00R. Krejci—11613592R. Pavelka—9111111113
WFeb 18 · 03:30R. Krejci—811511113R. Pavelka—11911762
WDec 27 · 03:00R. Krejci—111111113R. Pavelka—991361
LOct 4 · 03:05R. Krejci—71191102R. Pavelka—115118113
LOct 3 · 22:00R. Krejci—11651282R. Pavelka—8111110113
WMar 12 · 24:00R. Krejci—71411113R. Pavelka—1112971
WMar 8 · 24:30R. Krejci—1111113R. Pavelka—9990
R. Krejci10
WSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.5010770R. Krejci1.501211113WSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480LSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:00R. Krejci1.911111113M. Chlebecek1.808670WSep 6 · 22:00M. Volf1.5771260R. Krejci2.251114113WSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113WSep 6 · 20:30R. Krejci1.807111011113T. Janata1.9111812682LSep 6 · 19:00R. Krejci2.007680M. Volf1.731111113
R. Pavelka10
LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.