TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092722
Played Sep 9Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012113911511––
Michal Vedmoch
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Michal Vedmoch below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 63.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 20–13 Michal Vedmoch Michal Vedmoch has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-13 in 33
Pavelka
Wrong
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1545 vs Vedmoch 1647
Vedmoch
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Vedmoch 80%
Vedmoch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Vedmoch 60%
Vedmoch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Vedmoch +3
Vedmoch
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vedmoch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.73 / Vedmoch 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vedmoch)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092722
Pavelka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 104 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it76% 74 of 97
Vedmoch2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 122 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back10% 8 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayVedmoch2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka85.7%6 of 7
AwayVedmoch33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka7Vedmoch3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka4Vedmoch6n = 10Vedmoch took 6 of 10
S3Pavelka5Vedmoch5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavelka4Vedmoch4n = 8split evenly
S5Pavelka6Vedmoch1n = 7Pavelka took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaVedmochP − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.138.2+3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaVedmochBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 885 vs 710 / 131750.4%53.9%446 / 885 vs 710 / 1317Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.73/Vedmoch 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vedmoch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 02:00R. Pavelka—118116113M. Vedmoch—91151182
WAug 25 · 20:00R. Pavelka—1111113M. Vedmoch—6460
WAug 24 · 17:30R. Pavelka—118411113M. Vedmoch—51111742
WAug 24 · 14:00R. Pavelka—1051111113M. Vedmoch—12118492
WAug 7 · 08:30R. Pavelka—111011113M. Vedmoch—512371
LJul 17 · 14:00R. Pavelka—52150M. Vedmoch—1111173
WJul 15 · 20:30R. Pavelka—111229113M. Vedmoch—410111142
WJul 13 · 19:00R. Pavelka—711117113M. Vedmoch—11791132
LJul 7 · 09:30R. Pavelka—11116482M. Vedmoch—751111113
WJul 7 · 06:30R. Pavelka—116914113M. Vedmoch—611111282
R. Pavelka10
WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121
M. Vedmoch10
WSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481WSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.53141110113V. Postelt2.381281291WSep 8 · 17:00J. Stolfa2.25111111342M. Vedmoch1.57132811113LSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721WSep 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.008870M. Vedmoch1.731111113LSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143LSep 7 · 21:30J. Hradecky1.4011137123M. Vedmoch2.7571111101WSep 7 · 20:00T. Janata1.40591351M. Vedmoch2.75111111113WSep 7 · 19:00L. Krticka2.10111180M. Vedmoch1.671313113WSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
Nothing scheduled
M. Vedmoch
Sep 9 · 02:30M. Vedmoch1.83R. Krejci1.83—Sep 9 · 14:00M. Vedmoch3.00J. Hradecky1.36—Sep 9 · 15:30M. Vedmoch1.91M. Sedlak1.80—Sep 9 · 16:00M. Vedmoch1.57J. Stolfa2.25—Sep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.20D. Kouble1.61—Sep 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.83R. Krejci1.83—Sep 10 · 01:00M. Vedmoch2.00A. Hlawatschke1.73—Sep 10 · 02:30M. Vedmoch3.00J. Hradecky1.36—
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