TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092917
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111191311411117
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 4–2 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:41What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pavelka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Trefny
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1567 vs Pavelka 1542
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 40% vs Pavelka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 50% vs Pavelka 30%
Trefny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny -1 · Pavelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.83 / Pavelka 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092917
Trefny1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pavelka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTrefny4wins
AwayPavelka2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderTrefny leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPavelka25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny2Pavelka4n = 6Pavelka took 4 of 6
S2Trefny3Pavelka3n = 6split evenly
S3Trefny3Pavelka3n = 6split evenly
S4Trefny4Pavelka2n = 6Trefny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTrefnyPavelkaT − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match41.739.2+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 107 vs 446 / 88749.5%50.3%53 / 107 vs 446 / 887Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.83/Pavelka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 20:00J. Trefny—121311113R. Pavelka—1015561
LAug 31 · 17:29J. Trefny—114971R. Pavelka—81111113
WAug 31 · 16:00J. Trefny—91111113R. Pavelka—116551
LJul 25 · 23:00J. Trefny—3111061R. Pavelka—11312113
WJul 15 · 20:58J. Trefny—711911113R. Pavelka—11511882
WJul 15 · 19:00J. Trefny—1061211123R. Pavelka—1211108102
J. Trefny10
LSep 8 · 23:30M. Vedmoch1.44111112113J. Trefny2.63761481LSep 8 · 17:30J. Plachy2.101111113J. Trefny1.678750WSep 8 · 16:30J. Trefny1.5391111113J. Plachy2.38117681WSep 8 · 15:00J. Trefny1.801311113T. Dousa1.9111580LSep 8 · 14:00Y. Holovatiuk2.201111113J. Trefny1.614320LSep 7 · 13:30J. Plachy1.9111118113J. Trefny1.80891151WSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113WSep 7 · 11:00L. Malek2.6381171132J. Trefny1.44119119113LSep 7 · 10:30J. Trefny1.67571151J. Plachy2.1011119113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Trefny1.73117912143J. Plachy2.008111110122
R. Pavelka10
LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471
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