TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091744
Played Sep 9Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911811119711
Vladimir Postelt
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Postelt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Vladimir Postelt below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vladimir Postelt at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 27–40 Vladimir Postelt Radim Pavelka has won 27 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Postelt
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-40 in 67
Postelt
Correct
gap of 13 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1537 vs Postelt 1429
Pavelka
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Postelt 20%
Pavelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 30% vs Postelt 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -1 · Postelt -4
Postelt
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Postelt)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.20 / Postelt 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+3.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091744
Pavelka2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 79 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Postelt1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite61% won 124 of 202
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it85% 98 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka3wins
AwayPostelt7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPostelt leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka66.7%2 of 3
AwayPostelt85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka3Postelt7n = 10Postelt took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka4Postelt6n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S3Pavelka4Postelt6n = 10Postelt took 6 of 10
S4Pavelka3Postelt5n = 8Postelt took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaPosteltPavelka − PosteltBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.2−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaPosteltBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 886 vs 433 / 82250.3%52.7%446 / 886 vs 433 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PosteltPavelka 2.20/Postelt 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Postelt · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 22:00R. Pavelka—119911113V. Postelt—51111962
LAug 23 · 20:59R. Pavelka—11630V. Postelt—1311113
WAug 23 · 18:30R. Pavelka—91112113V. Postelt—1171051
LJul 12 · 19:30R. Pavelka—6116121V. Postelt—11911143
LJul 5 · 18:00R. Pavelka—811118102V. Postelt—119911123
LJul 1 · 21:00R. Pavelka—115891V. Postelt—51111113
LJul 1 · 19:00R. Pavelka—1311591V. Postelt—15711113
LJun 14 · 21:30R. Pavelka—71180V. Postelt—1113113
WJun 14 · 20:30R. Pavelka—11911113V. Postelt—911871
LJun 4 · 03:30R. Pavelka—571261V. Postelt—111110113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.731011951M. Vedmoch2.0012311113WSep 9 · 24:00R. Krejci1.6711981132R. Pavelka2.10711119113LSep 8 · 22:30J. Trefny1.83811134113R. Pavelka1.83119111172LSep 7 · 16:59R. Pavelka1.831013111192T. Dousa1.831211136113WSep 7 · 16:30R. Pavelka1.911111113T. Dousa1.807580LSep 7 · 15:00R. Pavelka1.8081171142M. Sedlak1.91118119113LSep 7 · 14:00M. Vedmoch2.251111113R. Pavelka1.579450WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113
V. Postelt10
LSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113LSep 8 · 23:00V. Postelt2.5010770R. Krejci1.501211113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Vedmoch1.53141110113V. Postelt2.381281291LSep 8 · 02:30J. Dedek3.251111113V. Postelt1.338380WSep 8 · 01:00P. Fojt2.5081040V. Postelt1.501112113LSep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.3894100D. Kouble1.531111123LSep 7 · 22:00V. Postelt1.83791371J. Prokupek1.83111111113WSep 7 · 13:00V. Postelt1.20411811113L. Malek4.3311611852LSep 7 · 12:00V. Postelt1.611081151J. Trefny2.2012114113LSep 7 · 11:30J. Plachy2.251111107113V. Postelt1.5777121182
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