TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100946
Played Sep 9Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116411611––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 67 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Viacheslav Kovalenko at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 29–38 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 29 of their 67 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-38 in 67
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 9 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1592 vs Kovalchuk 1450
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 80% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 90% vs Kovalchuk 40%
Kovalenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Kovalchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.83 / Kovalchuk 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100946
Kovalenko1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kovalchuk1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayKovalchuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko7Kovalchuk3n = 10Kovalenko took 7 of 10
S2Kovalenko4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalenko3Kovalchuk4n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoKovalchukKovalenko − KovalchukBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.9+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 402 vs 329 / 78543.8%41.9%176 / 402 vs 329 / 785Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.83/Kovalchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko—11611133O. Kovalchuk—9118111
WAug 26 · 16:55V. Kovalenko—1111133O. Kovalchuk—99110
WAug 20 · 13:25V. Kovalenko—1111113O. Kovalchuk—5870
LAug 13 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—10101171O. Kovalchuk—12128113
WAug 12 · 21:55V. Kovalenko—11115113O. Kovalchuk—871131
LAug 12 · 02:55V. Kovalenko—1111861O. Kovalchuk—91311113
WAug 6 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—117114113O. Kovalchuk—91171182
LAug 6 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—811911132O. Kovalchuk—115114153
LJul 30 · 13:55V. Kovalenko—12880O. Kovalchuk—1411113
LJul 29 · 23:55V. Kovalenko—117541O. Kovalchuk—41111113
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111
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