TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095374
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114116––––
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 107–104 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 104 of their 211 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kovalchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
107-104 in 211
Kovalchuk
Correct
gap of 3 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1421 vs Rubtsov 1454
Rubtsov
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Rubtsov 40%
Rubtsov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Rubtsov 40%
Rubtsov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Rubtsov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.73 / Rubtsov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13095374
Kovalchuk1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 63 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it71% 44 of 62
Rubtsov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk5wins
AwayRubtsov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk100%4 of 4
AwayRubtsov83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk4Rubtsov6n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk8Rubtsov2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Rubtsov4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk3Rubtsov3n = 6split evenly
S5Kovalchuk1Rubtsov3n = 4Rubtsov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRubtsovK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.237.2+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 786 vs 295 / 76541.7%38.6%328 / 786 vs 295 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.73/Rubtsov 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—11680E. Rubtsov—1311113
LAug 20 · 17:25O. Kovalchuk—111191162E. Rubtsov—138119113
LAug 19 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk—614111102E. Rubtsov—1112116123
WAug 13 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—111199113E. Rubtsov—79111182
WAug 13 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk—1111143E. Rubtsov—58120
WAug 11 · 23:25O. Kovalchuk—1311113E. Rubtsov—11890
WAug 6 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—61211113E. Rubtsov—1110741
LAug 6 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk—1061171E. Rubtsov—12115113
WAug 5 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk—1113113E. Rubtsov—61130
LJul 30 · 16:55O. Kovalchuk—81111972E. Rubtsov—112811113
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781LSep 3 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.539111111113O. Kovalchuk2.3811981372LSep 3 · 02:55S. Ponomarenko1.03811611113O. Kovalchuk10.0011611692
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050WSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113LSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113
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