TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095394
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141191113711611
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 76.7% is still 76.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
76.7%
76.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 76.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 103–45 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 45 of their 148 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
103-45 in 148
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 58 in 148, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1572 vs Rubtsov 1462
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 40% vs Rubtsov 60%
Rubtsov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Rubtsov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko +2 · Rubtsov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 1.30 / Rubtsov 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Mishchenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095394
Mishchenko1.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 123 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it90% 83 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Rubtsov3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko8wins
AwayRubtsov2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayRubtsov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko7Rubtsov3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko8Rubtsov2n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S3Mishchenko4Rubtsov6n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S4Mishchenko5Rubtsov3n = 8Mishchenko took 5 of 8
S5Mishchenko4Rubtsov2n = 6Mishchenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoRubtsovM − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.236.6+7.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 1049 vs 296 / 76546.9%38.7%492 / 1049 vs 296 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoMishchenko 1.30/Rubtsov 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.7%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rubtsov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 22:25O. Mishchenko—1111113E. Rubtsov—2740
WAug 18 · 23:55O. Mishchenko—11113113E. Rubtsov—791181
WAug 13 · 18:55O. Mishchenko—1011912113E. Rubtsov—129111062
WAug 13 · 24:25O. Mishchenko—7111011113E. Rubtsov—11512462
WAug 11 · 22:25O. Mishchenko—119711113E. Rubtsov—31111542
WAug 6 · 18:55O. Mishchenko—1111113E. Rubtsov—8780
LAug 5 · 23:55O. Mishchenko—111241252E. Rubtsov—9101114113
WAug 5 · 03:55O. Mishchenko—11118113E. Rubtsov—361151
LJul 30 · 14:25O. Mishchenko—911117122E. Rubtsov—118811143
WJul 29 · 22:55O. Mishchenko—11101110113E. Rubtsov—41261292
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 9 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.57111110111O. Mishchenko2.2513912133WSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 21:55O. Mishchenko2.75810100M. Makienko1.401112123LSep 4 · 19:55O. Gavryshko1.4011112113O. Mishchenko2.75591191LSep 4 · 18:55A. Chepurnyi1.441111113O. Mishchenko2.639850LSep 4 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.6711511113O. Mishchenko2.10711481
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov3.258680P. Plakushchyi1.331111113LSep 3 · 24:25E. Rubtsov3.251311281O. Mishchenko1.3315911113LSep 2 · 22:55E. Rubtsov11.009290S. Ponomarenko1.021111113
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