TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095389
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Dukhovenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
111311910121113––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Dukhovenko to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Dukhovenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 90 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Dukhovenko at 59.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Dukhovenko 88–83 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 83 of their 171 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dukhovenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
88-83 in 171
Dukhovenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 171, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dukhovenko 1891 vs Mishchenko 1572
Dukhovenko
Wrong
both rated, 318 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dukhovenko 80% vs Mishchenko 40%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dukhovenko 90% vs Mishchenko 20%
Dukhovenko
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dukhovenko +2 · Mishchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dukhovenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dukhovenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDukhovenko 1.57 / Mishchenko 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Dukhovenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095389
Dukhovenko1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 209 of 284
Up 2–0, closes it98% 129 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it91% 163 of 179
Mishchenko2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 91 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDukhovenko6wins
AwayMishchenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDukhovenko leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDukhovenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayMishchenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dukhovenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Dukhovenko took 6 of 10
S2Dukhovenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Dukhovenko took 6 of 10
S3Dukhovenko5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Dukhovenko4Mishchenko2n = 6Dukhovenko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDukhovenkoMishchenkoD − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.430.6+4.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDukhovenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 850 vs 492 / 104962.7%46.9%533 / 850 vs 492 / 1049Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DukhovenkoDukhovenko 1.57/Mishchenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Dukhovenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko—11811113O. Mishchenko—611881
LSep 4 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko—11511482O. Mishchenko—611511113
WAug 29 · 23:55O. Dukhovenko—11116113O. Mishchenko—391161
WAug 28 · 13:25O. Dukhovenko—11119113O. Mishchenko—271131
LAug 23 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko—98100O. Mishchenko—1111123
LAug 17 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko—8890O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 10 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—8770
LAug 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko—5111191O. Mishchenko—11813113
WAug 3 · 01:25O. Dukhovenko—61111113O. Mishchenko—112661
WJul 20 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—4880
O. Dukhovenko10
WSep 9 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.5311111113113V. Panasenko2.3813651572WSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860WSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660WSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921WSep 7 · 02:55M. Makienko2.00571161O. Dukhovenko1.7311117113WSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113WSep 6 · 23:25A. Chepurnyi2.50811851O. Dukhovenko1.5011811113WSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113WSep 6 · 03:25Y. Kryvorotko1.80119981O. Dukhovenko1.9181111113
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172LSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143LSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030LSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961LSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113WSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113
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