TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101039
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116711114511117
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 84 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 47–61 Pavel Plakushchyi Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 47 of their 108 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Plakushchyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-61 in 108
Plakushchyi
Wrong
gap of 14 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1569 vs Plakushchyi 1614
Plakushchyi
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 40% vs Plakushchyi 80%
Plakushchyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 50% vs Plakushchyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -1 · Plakushchyi +4
Plakushchyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 2.10 / Plakushchyi 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13101039
Mishchenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back12% 17 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 76
Plakushchyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 48 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko5wins
AwayPlakushchyi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko80%4 of 5
AwayPlakushchyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Mishchenko5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Mishchenko3Plakushchyi7n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S4Mishchenko6Plakushchyi2n = 8Mishchenko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoPlakushchyiM − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.735.6+0.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime495 / 1055 vs 304 / 68646.9%44.3%495 / 1055 vs 304 / 686Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.735.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiMishchenko 2.10/Plakushchyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 22:25O. Mishchenko—1161371P. Plakushchyi—41115113
LAug 26 · 18:25O. Mishchenko—91151172P. Plakushchyi—114117113
WAug 25 · 21:55O. Mishchenko—11611113P. Plakushchyi—811481
WAug 20 · 14:25O. Mishchenko—61111133P. Plakushchyi—1187111
LAug 20 · 02:25O. Mishchenko—8870P. Plakushchyi—1111113
WAug 19 · 03:55O. Mishchenko—11115113P. Plakushchyi—671151
WJul 30 · 02:55O. Mishchenko—11115113P. Plakushchyi—991181
LJul 29 · 02:55O. Mishchenko—811691P. Plakushchyi—11511113
LJul 20 · 03:25O. Mishchenko—8870P. Plakushchyi—1111113
WJul 19 · 04:25O. Mishchenko—11811113P. Plakushchyi—711781
O. Mishchenko10
LSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143LSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030LSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961WSep 9 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.57111110111O. Mishchenko2.2513912133LSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113WSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143WSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113WSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113WSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113WSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123LSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123LSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641LSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211
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