TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095369
Played Sep 9Finished
Pavel Plakushchyi
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711117311117119
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:40 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Plakushchyi above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 67.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Plakushchyi 59–37 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 37 of their 96 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Plakushchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-37 in 96
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 22 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plakushchyi 1572 vs Rubtsov 1436
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plakushchyi 20% vs Rubtsov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plakushchyi 10% vs Rubtsov 40%
Rubtsov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plakushchyi -2 · Rubtsov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlakushchyi 1.40 / Rubtsov 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13095369
Plakushchyi1.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 46 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Rubtsov2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 98 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlakushchyi8wins
AwayRubtsov2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlakushchyi100%7 of 7
AwayRubtsov66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plakushchyi7Rubtsov3n = 10Plakushchyi took 7 of 10
S2Plakushchyi6Rubtsov4n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Plakushchyi5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S4Plakushchyi5Rubtsov2n = 7Plakushchyi took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlakushchyiRubtsovP − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.333.8+3.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlakushchyiRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 682 vs 295 / 76544%38.6%300 / 682 vs 295 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.335.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiPlakushchyi 1.40/Rubtsov 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi—71070E. Rubtsov—1112113
WSep 3 · 01:55P. Plakushchyi—1111113E. Rubtsov—8680
WAug 26 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi—11911113E. Rubtsov—511991
WAug 26 · 03:25P. Plakushchyi—111110113E. Rubtsov—951291
LAug 20 · 15:55P. Plakushchyi—311821E. Rubtsov—11311113
WAug 19 · 23:55P. Plakushchyi—111169123E. Rubtsov—971111102
WAug 19 · 01:25P. Plakushchyi—981111113E. Rubtsov—11116662
WJul 29 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi—11111113E. Rubtsov—711681
WJul 29 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi—1211113E. Rubtsov—10590
WApr 22 · 23:25P. Plakushchyi—11117113E. Rubtsov—871171
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113WSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123LSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123LSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641LSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211LSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 7 · 12:40A. Yurkov1.3391111143P. Plakushchyi3.251188121LSep 7 · 10:40A. Hrabskyi1.73114411113P. Plakushchyi2.0071111892LSep 4 · 19:25O. Dukhovenko1.10119711113P. Plakushchyi6.5081111732
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050WSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113LSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113LSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113
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