TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100955
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911115113––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 66 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 65.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 70–98 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 70 of their 168 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-98 in 168
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 28 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1468 vs Mishchenko 1587
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Mishchenko 60%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Mishchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +2 · Mishchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Mishchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.20 / Mishchenko 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Mishchenko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100955
Kovalchuk2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 83 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Mishchenko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 120 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it89% 81 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayMishchenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayMishchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk4Mishchenko6n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk4Mishchenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalchuk4Mishchenko1n = 5Kovalchuk took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.139.4−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime329 / 785 vs 495 / 105441.9%47%329 / 785 vs 495 / 1054Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalchuk 2.20/Mishchenko 1.61
Miss
What we said
61.3%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—811511113O. Mishchenko—11911962
WSep 2 · 23:25O. Kovalchuk—11512113O. Mishchenko—4111061
WAug 26 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—1312113O. Mishchenko—111070
LAug 26 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk—91111492O. Mishchenko—117911113
WAug 20 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—111177113O. Mishchenko—76111162
WAug 19 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk—791111113O. Mishchenko—11118872
LAug 13 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—116551O. Mishchenko—81111113
LAug 13 · 02:25O. Kovalchuk—5470O. Mishchenko—1111113
WAug 12 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk—114511113O. Mishchenko—61111732
LAug 6 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk—7711101O. Mishchenko—11118123
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143LSep 9 · 21:55V. Kovalenko1.9111611113O. Mishchenko1.80311761WSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030LSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961WSep 9 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.57111110111O. Mishchenko2.2513912133LSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113WSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113
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