TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101257
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114115711711118
Eduard Rubtsov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr V Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Eduard Rubtsov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 86 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr V Kovalchuk at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 108–107 Eduard Rubtsov Eduard Rubtsov has won 107 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Rubtsov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
108-107 in 215
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1438 vs Rubtsov 1429
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Rubtsov 20%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Rubtsov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Rubtsov -3
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rubtsov form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.83 / Rubtsov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13101257
Kovalchuk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Rubtsov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk4wins
AwayRubtsov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRubtsov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayRubtsov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Rubtsov4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Rubtsov5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk4Rubtsov2n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
S5Kovalchuk1Rubtsov4n = 5Rubtsov took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukRubtsovK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.1−0.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukRubtsovBasisWin rate · lifetime328 / 785 vs 295 / 76541.8%38.6%328 / 785 vs 295 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.83/Rubtsov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk—1111113E. Rubtsov—7460
LSep 3 · 18:25O. Kovalchuk—1110541E. Rubtsov—81211113
LSep 2 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—97111162E. Rubtsov—111158113
LAug 26 · 18:55O. Kovalchuk—82111162E. Rubtsov—111178113
LAug 25 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—11680E. Rubtsov—1311113
LAug 20 · 17:25O. Kovalchuk—111191162E. Rubtsov—138119113
LAug 19 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk—614111102E. Rubtsov—1112116123
WAug 13 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—111199113E. Rubtsov—79111182
WAug 13 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk—1111143E. Rubtsov—58120
WAug 11 · 23:25O. Kovalchuk—1311113E. Rubtsov—11890
O. Kovalchuk10
LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541LSep 3 · 16:25S. Ponomarenko1.041114113O. Kovalchuk9.0071270WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.63811511113O. Mishchenko1.4411911962LSep 3 · 14:25P. Plakushchyi1.5761111113O. Kovalchuk2.25118781
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050WSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113LSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070LSep 3 · 13:55E. Rubtsov6.006111041M. Makienko1.1111912113
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