TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101153
Played Sep 9Finished
Viacheslav Kovalenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113611117116––
Oleksandr Mishchenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingViacheslav Kovalenko above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 66 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Kovalenko 29–34 Oleksandr Mishchenko Viacheslav Kovalenko has won 29 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-34 in 63
Mishchenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1579 vs Mishchenko 1584
Mishchenko
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 80% vs Mishchenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 90% vs Mishchenko 40%
Kovalenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +1 · Mishchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mishchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.91 / Mishchenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mishchenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13101153
Kovalenko1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 65 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back15% 14 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Mishchenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 120 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it89% 81 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalenko4wins
AwayMishchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMishchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMishchenko75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalenko2Mishchenko8n = 10Mishchenko took 8 of 10
S2Kovalenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalenko6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalenko4Mishchenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalenko1Mishchenko2n = 3Mishchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalenkoMishchenkoK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.3+2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 401 vs 494 / 105243.6%47%175 / 401 vs 494 / 1052Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalenko 1.91/Mishchenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko—71171182O. Mishchenko—117113113
LAug 26 · 14:25V. Kovalenko—9121181O. Mishchenko—11145113
WAug 20 · 16:25V. Kovalenko—111111113O. Mishchenko—613741
LAug 20 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—8111181O. Mishchenko—11913113
LAug 13 · 14:55V. Kovalenko—971151O. Mishchenko—11114113
WAug 13 · 04:25V. Kovalenko—81111113O. Mishchenko—114751
WAug 12 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—1111113O. Mishchenko—6930
LAug 6 · 14:55V. Kovalenko—81331162O. Mishchenko—1111115113
LAug 6 · 24:55V. Kovalenko—811100O. Mishchenko—1113123
WJul 30 · 18:25V. Kovalenko—1011117113O. Mishchenko—12471142
V. Kovalenko10
WSep 3 · 03:25E. Rubtsov2.209480V. Kovalenko1.611111113LSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113WSep 3 · 01:25V. Kovalenko1.9111611133O. Kovalchuk1.809118111WSep 2 · 23:55V. Kovalenko2.109111211113P. Plakushchyi1.6711514482WSep 2 · 21:55V. Kovalenko6.0011128123S. Ponomarenko1.1181011101WAug 28 · 03:25V. Kovalenko1.401111113V. Khamurda2.758780WAug 28 · 01:55V. Kovalenko1.83111169123R. Gnoevoy1.83491111102WAug 28 · 24:25V. Kovalenko1.53111511113S. Skachenko2.387131341WAug 27 · 22:55V. Kovalenko1.7311712113S. Abalmaz2.007111091WAug 27 · 21:25V. Kovalenko1.571211113O. Naida2.2510320
O. Mishchenko10
WSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030LSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961WSep 9 · 24:25O. Dukhovenko1.57111110111O. Mishchenko2.2513912133LSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113WSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123WSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123LSep 7 · 02:25O. Mishchenko2.20111060A. Chepurnyi1.611312113LSep 7 · 01:25O. Mishchenko2.38611881O. Dukhovenko1.5311811113LSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113WSep 3 · 02:25V. Kovalenko1.9171171182O. Mishchenko1.80117113113
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