TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101203
Played Sep 9Finished
Eduard Rubtsov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1168111214511––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 78 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 67.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 37–60 Pavel Plakushchyi Eduard Rubtsov has won 37 of their 97 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Plakushchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-60 in 97
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 23 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1417 vs Plakushchyi 1597
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 20% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 40% vs Plakushchyi 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov -4 · Plakushchyi +2
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 2.75 / Plakushchyi 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13101203
Rubtsov2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 97 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back14% 23 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back9% 11 of 117
Plakushchyi1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 48 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov50%2 of 4
AwayPlakushchyi100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov4Plakushchyi6n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S2Rubtsov4Plakushchyi6n = 10Plakushchyi took 6 of 10
S3Rubtsov5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Rubtsov2Plakushchyi5n = 7Plakushchyi took 5 of 7
S5Rubtsov0Plakushchyi3n = 3Plakushchyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiR − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.037.6−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 765 vs 302 / 68438.4%44.2%294 / 765 vs 302 / 684Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.135.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiRubtsov 2.75/Plakushchyi 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—11711792P. Plakushchyi—711311113
WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov—1112113P. Plakushchyi—71070
LSep 3 · 01:55E. Rubtsov—8680P. Plakushchyi—1111113
LAug 26 · 17:25E. Rubtsov—511991P. Plakushchyi—11911113
LAug 26 · 03:25E. Rubtsov—951291P. Plakushchyi—111110113
WAug 20 · 15:55E. Rubtsov—11311113P. Plakushchyi—311821
LAug 19 · 23:55E. Rubtsov—971111102P. Plakushchyi—111169123
LAug 19 · 01:25E. Rubtsov—11116662P. Plakushchyi—981111113
LJul 29 · 21:25E. Rubtsov—711681P. Plakushchyi—11111113
LJul 29 · 03:55E. Rubtsov—10590P. Plakushchyi—1211113
E. Rubtsov10
LSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460LSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050WSep 8 · 23:25O. Mishchenko1.30111111762E. Rubtsov3.40491311113LSep 8 · 21:25O. Dukhovenko1.061111113E. Rubtsov8.007550LSep 3 · 19:25S. Ponomarenko1.01111112123E. Rubtsov12.008714101WSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov3.25115115113O. Mishchenko1.3371171162WSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113WSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113WSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123LSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123LSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641LSep 7 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.36111114113P. Plakushchyi3.006131211LSep 7 · 14:40V. Marushchak2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.738670LSep 3 · 15:55E. Rubtsov2.751112113P. Plakushchyi1.4071070
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