TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100611
Played Sep 9Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Anatolii Kovalenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Anatolii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Anatolii Kovalenko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 10–12 Anatolii Kovalenko Vasiliy Smyk has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:20What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-12 in 22
Kovalenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1425 vs Kovalenko 1373
Smyk
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Kovalenko 40%
Smyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 60% vs Kovalenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Kovalenko -3
Kovalenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.10 / Kovalenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100611
Smyk2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 97 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 73
Kovalenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 75 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it66% 49 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk4wins
AwayKovalenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk57.1%4 of 7
AwayKovalenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk7Kovalenko3n = 10Smyk took 7 of 10
S2Smyk5Kovalenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Smyk4Kovalenko6n = 10Kovalenko took 6 of 10
S4Smyk2Kovalenko5n = 7Kovalenko took 5 of 7
S5Smyk1Kovalenko2n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykKovalenkoS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.8+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 646 vs 272 / 51142.7%53.2%276 / 646 vs 272 / 511Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoSmyk 2.10/Kovalenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 15:10V. Smyk—111113672A. Kovalenko—711511113
LAug 11 · 17:10V. Smyk—81111892A. Kovalenko—116511113
WAug 1 · 18:00V. Smyk—1411113A. Kovalenko—12780
WJul 26 · 15:30V. Smyk—1111113A. Kovalenko—5580
LJul 20 · 06:50V. Smyk—114871A. Kovalenko—71111113
LJun 14 · 10:50V. Smyk—114561A. Kovalenko—91111113
LJun 13 · 18:20V. Smyk—8890A. Kovalenko—1111113
WMay 31 · 10:50V. Smyk—11611113A. Kovalenko—911451
WMay 30 · 18:20V. Smyk—118811113A. Kovalenko—81111482
LMay 24 · 08:20V. Smyk—811971A. Kovalenko—11511113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082
A. Kovalenko10
LSep 6 · 12:50A. Kovalenko1.83381111S. Solomko1.831111393LSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122LSep 6 · 08:50D. Patalakha2.0011137113A. Kovalenko1.734111171WSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.83109100A. Kovalenko1.831211123WSep 4 · 12:05A. Kovalenko1.5711611113O. Mytsyk2.25511541LSep 4 · 10:05K. Klymenko1.73881111113A. Kovalenko2.0011118722WSep 4 · 08:05M. Stetsenko2.631111171A. Kovalenko1.4411813113WSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123
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