TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13100112
Played Sep 9Finished
Polina Pashchenko
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199111315411––
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.11
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 87.2% is still 87.2%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
87.2%
87.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPolina Pashchenko above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 83 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 87.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Polina Pashchenko 0–1 Alina Ovriakh Polina Pashchenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pashchenko 1527 vs Ovriakh 1868
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 342 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pashchenko 80% vs Ovriakh 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pashchenko 60% vs Ovriakh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pashchenko -1 · Ovriakh +4
Ovriakh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% — Strong (leans Ovriakh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (80%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPashchenko 6.00 / Ovriakh 1.11
Signal prob.13% / 87%
Edge (Ovriakh)+2.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13100112
Pashchenko6.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ovriakh1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePashchenko0wins
AwayOvriakh1wins
Ovriakh leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricPashchenkoOvriakhP − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match18.033.0−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPashchenkoOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 122 vs 51 / 7855.7%65.4%68 / 122 vs 51 / 78Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhPashchenko 6.00/Ovriakh 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.2%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LMay 29 · 10:00P. Pashchenko—9180A. Ovriakh—1111113
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 08:30A. Rzhevska1.9171111113P. Pashchenko1.80117291LAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770LAug 21 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk1.5711118113P. Pashchenko2.25591131WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520
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