TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406552
Played Aug 12Finished
Alina Ovriakh
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115112––––
Alina Kurtenko
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 83.3% is still 83.3%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
83.3%
83.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlina Ovriakh above · Alina Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 47 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 83.3%
47 points played in total.
H2H Alina Ovriakh 10–3 Alina Kurtenko Alina Kurtenko has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Ovriakh
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovriakh 1882 vs Kurtenko 1682
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovriakh 80% vs Kurtenko 100%
Kurtenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovriakh 90% vs Kurtenko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovriakh +3 · Kurtenko +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Ovriakh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvriakh 1.30 / Kurtenko 3.40
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Ovriakh)+11.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406552
Ovriakh1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kurtenko3.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvriakh8wins
AwayKurtenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvriakh80%4 of 5
AwayKurtenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovriakh5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ovriakh5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ovriakh7Kurtenko3n = 10Ovriakh took 7 of 10
S4Ovriakh8Kurtenko1n = 9Ovriakh took 8 of 9
S5Ovriakh2Kurtenko1n = 3Ovriakh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvriakhKurtenkoO − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.2+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvriakhKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 68 vs 113 / 20866.2%54.3%45 / 68 vs 113 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhOvriakh 1.30/Kurtenko 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.3%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 04:30A. Ovriakh—881111123A. Kurtenko—111188102
WJul 22 · 08:00A. Ovriakh—61211113A. Kurtenko—1110891
WJul 22 · 07:00A. Ovriakh—141111113A. Kurtenko—165891
WJun 25 · 11:00A. Ovriakh—11611133A. Kurtenko—8117111
WJun 24 · 05:35A. Ovriakh—111111113A. Kurtenko—631381
WJun 18 · 08:00A. Ovriakh—1111113A. Kurtenko—5890
WJun 17 · 08:35A. Ovriakh—11611113A. Kurtenko—611941
WMay 30 · 06:05A. Ovriakh—11101111113A. Kurtenko—13127762
LMay 29 · 11:00A. Ovriakh—12881182A. Kurtenko—1011118113
LMay 6 · 07:05A. Ovriakh—612781A. Kurtenko—111011113
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190LAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162WAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133
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