TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417162
Played Aug 13Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111113––––
Alina Kurtenko
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 79.1% is still 79.1%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
79.1%
79.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 59 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 79.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 19–5 Alina Kurtenko Alina Kurtenko has won 5 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-5 in 24
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 14 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1793 vs Kurtenko 1637
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Kurtenko 0%
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Kurtenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -2 · Kurtenko -5
Kurtenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.28 / Kurtenko 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+6.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417162
Plokhotniuk1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kurtenko3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk7wins
AwayKurtenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKurtenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk6Kurtenko4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk3Kurtenko7n = 10Kurtenko took 7 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk8Kurtenko2n = 10Plokhotniuk took 8 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk5Kurtenko3n = 8Plokhotniuk took 5 of 8
S5Plokhotniuk2Kurtenko1n = 3Plokhotniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukKurtenkoP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.939.6+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 174 vs 113 / 21360.3%53.1%105 / 174 vs 113 / 213Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.28/Kurtenko 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.1%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—119127113A. Kurtenko—611101182
WJul 23 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Kurtenko—5990
LJul 22 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—5141161A. Kurtenko—11169113
LJul 22 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—95130A. Kurtenko—1111153
WJun 25 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—111612113A. Kurtenko—9181091
WJun 24 · 09:05N. Plokhotniuk—12811113A. Kurtenko—1011631
WJun 18 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—101111113A. Kurtenko—126751
WJun 17 · 07:35N. Plokhotniuk—114118123A. Kurtenko—911911102
LMay 30 · 08:05N. Plokhotniuk—14681192A. Kurtenko—1211116113
WMay 29 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—101111123A. Kurtenko—1295101
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190LAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182
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