TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406557
Played Aug 12Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111012––––
Iolanta Yevtodii
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Iolanta Yevtodii below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 57 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 71.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 19–40 Iolanta Yevtodii Nataliia Plokhotniuk has won 19 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Yevtodii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-40 in 59
Yevtodii
Correct
gap of 21 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1814 vs Yevtodii 1936
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Yevtodii 80%
Yevtodii
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Yevtodii 80%
Yevtodii
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +2 · Yevtodii +4
Yevtodii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Yevtodii) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yevtodii form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 2.38 / Yevtodii 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Yevtodii)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406557
Plokhotniuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Yevtodii1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk3wins
AwayYevtodii7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk20%1 of 5
AwayYevtodii60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Yevtodii5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk2Yevtodii8n = 10Yevtodii took 8 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk5Yevtodii5n = 10split evenly
S4Plokhotniuk5Yevtodii3n = 8Plokhotniuk took 5 of 8
S5Plokhotniuk1Yevtodii4n = 5Yevtodii took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukYevtodiiP − YBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.7−2.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukYevtodiiBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 172 vs 105 / 14861.1%71%105 / 172 vs 105 / 148Avg sets wonper match2.22.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiPlokhotniuk 2.38/Yevtodii 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 7 · 10:08N. Plokhotniuk—11116792I. Yevtodii—361111113
LJul 7 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk—9101191I. Yevtodii—11126113
LJul 6 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk—11971482I. Yevtodii—5111112113
WJun 25 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk—11511113I. Yevtodii—911861
LJun 24 · 07:05N. Plokhotniuk—111116982I. Yevtodii—8131411113
LJun 18 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk—11341172I. Yevtodii—911118113
WJun 17 · 10:05N. Plokhotniuk—111111113I. Yevtodii—138681
LMay 30 · 05:05N. Plokhotniuk—7870I. Yevtodii—1111113
WMay 29 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk—10101111113I. Yevtodii—12124962
LMay 6 · 05:05N. Plokhotniuk—6830I. Yevtodii—1111113
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
I. Yevtodii10
WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.1714114113A. Kurtenko4.501271171WAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2541111113U. Dronova3.75116561WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii1.40361111113N. Plokhotniuk2.7511116792
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