TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417195
Played Aug 13Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116711311118611
Iolanta Yevtodii
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched — 80.6% is still 80.6%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
80.6%
80.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Iolanta Yevtodii below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 80.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 7–26 Iolanta Yevtodii Ulana Dronova has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:31What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Yevtodii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-26 in 33
Yevtodii
Correct
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1591 vs Yevtodii 1975
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 384 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 40% vs Yevtodii 100%
Yevtodii
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 50% vs Yevtodii 80%
Yevtodii
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova -1 · Yevtodii +5
Yevtodii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Yevtodii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yevtodii form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 4.00 / Yevtodii 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Yevtodii)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417195
Dronova4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Yevtodii1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDronova3wins
AwayYevtodii7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova50%3 of 6
AwayYevtodii100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova6Yevtodii4n = 10Dronova took 6 of 10
S2Dronova2Yevtodii8n = 10Yevtodii took 8 of 10
S3Dronova4Yevtodii6n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S4Dronova2Yevtodii5n = 7Yevtodii took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDronovaYevtodiiD − YBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.838.6−6.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaYevtodiiBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 106 vs 112 / 15543.4%72.3%46 / 106 vs 112 / 155Avg sets wonper match1.82.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiDronova 4.00/Yevtodii 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.6%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova—11731162I. Yevtodii—611118113
LAug 12 · 05:30U. Dronova—116561I. Yevtodii—41111113
LApr 7 · 06:30U. Dronova—119561I. Yevtodii—61111113
LApr 6 · 17:40U. Dronova—8320I. Yevtodii—1111113
LFeb 26 · 06:05U. Dronova—971391I. Yevtodii—111111113
WFeb 25 · 18:40U. Dronova—131386103I. Yevtodii—1111111192
WFeb 11 · 11:05U. Dronova—1111123I. Yevtodii—38100
LJan 11 · 06:05U. Dronova—3840I. Yevtodii—1111113
LJan 10 · 12:40U. Dronova—2111191I. Yevtodii—11138113
WSep 6 · 11:40U. Dronova—11511113I. Yevtodii—811981
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
I. Yevtodii10
WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.1714114113A. Kurtenko4.501271171WAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2541111113U. Dronova3.75116561WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii1.40361111113N. Plokhotniuk2.7511116792
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