TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461447
Played Aug 20Finished
Alina Kurtenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511117116114––
Ulana Dronova
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlina Kurtenko above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 61.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Alina Kurtenko 2–4 Ulana Dronova Alina Kurtenko has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:04What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dronova
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Dronova
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1627 vs Dronova 1605
Kurtenko
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Dronova 60%
Dronova
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 30% vs Dronova 50%
Dronova
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko +2 · Dronova +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Dronova)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 2.25 / Dronova 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dronova)+3.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461447
Kurtenko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Dronova1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKurtenko2wins
AwayDronova4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderDronova leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDronova100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko2Dronova4n = 6Dronova took 4 of 6
S2Kurtenko4Dronova2n = 6Kurtenko took 4 of 6
S3Kurtenko3Dronova3n = 6split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricKurtenkoDronovaK − DBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match32.336.2−3.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 220 vs 45 / 9852.7%45.9%116 / 220 vs 45 / 98Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaKurtenko 2.25/Dronova 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 13 · 08:30A. Kurtenko—31190U. Dronova—1113113
LAug 12 · 11:30A. Kurtenko—31111932U. Dronova—116611113
LJul 16 · 11:00A. Kurtenko—411811102U. Dronova—119116123
WApr 7 · 09:30A. Kurtenko—1111113U. Dronova—8880
LFeb 25 · 14:40A. Kurtenko—7930U. Dronova—1111113
WFeb 11 · 08:35A. Kurtenko—1411133U. Dronova—128110
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190LAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162WAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 11:30U. Dronova1.67116611113A. Kurtenko2.1031111932
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113WAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190WAug 12 · 11:30U. Dronova1.67116611113A. Kurtenko2.1031111932
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