TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417210
Played Aug 13Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131311119––––
Alina Kurtenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Alina Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 56.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 3–2 Alina Kurtenko Alina Kurtenko has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1588 vs Kurtenko 1652
Kurtenko
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 40% vs Kurtenko 20%
Dronova
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 40% vs Kurtenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova -2 · Kurtenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dronova)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 1.67 / Kurtenko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Dronova)+1.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417210
Dronova1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Kurtenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDronova3wins
AwayKurtenko2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDronova leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova100%3 of 3
AwayKurtenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova3Kurtenko2n = 5Dronova took 3 of 5
S2Dronova1Kurtenko4n = 5Kurtenko took 4 of 5
S3Dronova2Kurtenko3n = 5Kurtenko took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricDronovaKurtenkoD − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.434.2+2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 103 vs 114 / 21543.7%53%45 / 103 vs 114 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaDronova 1.67/Kurtenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 12 · 11:30U. Dronova—116611113A. Kurtenko—31111932
WJul 16 · 11:00U. Dronova—119116123A. Kurtenko—411811102
LApr 7 · 09:30U. Dronova—8880A. Kurtenko—1111113
WFeb 25 · 14:40U. Dronova—1111113A. Kurtenko—7930
LFeb 11 · 08:35U. Dronova—128110A. Kurtenko—1411133
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162WAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 11:30U. Dronova1.67116611113A. Kurtenko2.1031111932
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