TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466666
Played Aug 21Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1168111171315811
Svitlana Yureneva
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Svitlana Yureneva below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 101 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 73.3%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 3–3 Svitlana Yureneva Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:25What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Dronova
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1552 vs Yureneva 1532
Dronova
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 40% vs Yureneva 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 40% vs Yureneva 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova -2 · Yureneva +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Dronova) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yureneva form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 1.30 / Yureneva 3.40
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Dronova)-5.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup Women · #12466666
Dronova1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Yureneva3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDronova3wins
AwayYureneva3wins
4 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova50%2 of 4
AwayYurenevan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova4Yureneva2n = 6Dronova took 4 of 6
S2Dronova2Yureneva4n = 6Yureneva took 4 of 6
S3Dronova6Yureneva0n = 6Dronova took 6 of 6
S4Dronova2Yureneva2n = 4split evenly
S5Dronova1Yureneva3n = 4Yureneva took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDronovaYurenevaD − YBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match44.241.3+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaYurenevaBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 105 vs 370 / 60244.8%61.5%47 / 105 vs 370 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaDronova 1.30/Yureneva 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.8%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yureneva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova—118111382S. Yureneva—611715113
WAug 20 · 11:40U. Dronova—491111113S. Yureneva—11118652
WJul 16 · 05:30U. Dronova—1111113S. Yureneva—9860
WJul 15 · 11:10U. Dronova—1112123S. Yureneva—510100
LMay 21 · 10:30U. Dronova—1316141182S. Yureneva—1518124113
LMay 20 · 12:10U. Dronova—11711542S. Yureneva—711911113
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113
S. Yureneva10
WSep 1 · 11:30S. Yureneva1.221181111113A. Plashchynska4.0081113452LSep 1 · 09:30V. Kurtenko1.911111113S. Yureneva1.804770WSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113LSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113LAug 21 · 09:45A. Rzhevska2.10511512123S. Yureneva1.671191110102WAug 21 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk3.00410120S. Yureneva1.361112143WAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770WAug 21 · 05:00S. Yureneva1.67971111113A. Rzhevska2.1011119482LAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113
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