TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417161
Played Aug 13Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611811––––
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 1–0 Alina Ovriakh Alina Ovriakh has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1606 vs Ovriakh 1859
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 60% vs Ovriakh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 40% vs Ovriakh 60%
Ovriakh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova +1 · Ovriakh +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 2.00 / Ovriakh 1.73
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Ovriakh)+7.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417161
Dronova2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Ovriakh1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDronova1wins
AwayOvriakh0wins
Dronova leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDronovaOvriakhD − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.033.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 104 vs 49 / 7644.2%64.5%46 / 104 vs 49 / 76Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhDronova 2.00/Ovriakh 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 12 · 09:30U. Dronova—91111113A. Ovriakh—118951
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
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