TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406556
Played Aug 12Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711118911––
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 9–7 Alina Ovriakh Alina Ovriakh has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1804 vs Ovriakh 1836
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Ovriakh 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Ovriakh 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -1 · Ovriakh -3
Ovriakh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Plokhotniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.83 / Ovriakh 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406556
Plokhotniuk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ovriakh1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk5wins
AwayOvriakh5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk80%4 of 5
AwayOvriakh80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S4Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh1n = 6Plokhotniuk took 5 of 6
S5Plokhotniuk1Ovriakh2n = 3Ovriakh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhP − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.7−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 173 vs 46 / 7260.7%63.9%105 / 173 vs 46 / 72Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.83/Ovriakh 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 23 · 10:03N. Plokhotniuk—411711102A. Ovriakh—119117123
LJul 23 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—112761A. Ovriakh—41111113
LJul 22 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk—109111152A. Ovriakh—121198113
WJul 22 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk—11912123A. Ovriakh—81110101
LJul 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—48100A. Ovriakh—1111123
WJul 6 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—1511113A. Ovriakh—13750
WJun 25 · 08:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Ovriakh—9980
WJun 24 · 10:35N. Plokhotniuk—11128113A. Ovriakh—4101151
WJun 18 · 11:30N. Plokhotniuk—6101111113A. Ovriakh—11128472
LJun 17 · 05:35N. Plokhotniuk—9690A. Ovriakh—1111113
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
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