TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417158
Played Aug 13Finished
Alina Ovriakh
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9118111131311116
Alina Kurtenko
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched — 86.0% is still 86.0%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
86.0%
86.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlina Ovriakh above · Alina Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 94 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 86.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Alina Ovriakh 12–3 Alina Kurtenko Alina Kurtenko has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Ovriakh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Ovriakh
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovriakh 1868 vs Kurtenko 1616
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 253 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovriakh 20% vs Kurtenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovriakh 50% vs Kurtenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovriakh -1 · Kurtenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 86% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvriakh 1.25 / Kurtenko 3.75
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Ovriakh)+15.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417158
Ovriakh1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Kurtenko3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvriakh10wins
AwayKurtenko0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvriakh leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvriakh100%5 of 5
AwayKurtenko0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovriakh5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Ovriakh5Kurtenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ovriakh9Kurtenko1n = 10Ovriakh took 9 of 10
S4Ovriakh8Kurtenko0n = 8Ovriakh took 8 of 8
S5Ovriakh3Kurtenko0n = 3Ovriakh took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvriakhKurtenkoO − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.334.4+8.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvriakhKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 78 vs 114 / 21865.4%52.3%51 / 78 vs 114 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhOvriakh 1.25/Kurtenko 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.8%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh—981113113A. Kurtenko—111131162
WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh—1111113A. Kurtenko—7520
WJul 23 · 04:30A. Ovriakh—881111123A. Kurtenko—111188102
WJul 22 · 08:00A. Ovriakh—61211113A. Kurtenko—1110891
WJul 22 · 07:00A. Ovriakh—141111113A. Kurtenko—165891
WJun 25 · 11:00A. Ovriakh—11611133A. Kurtenko—8117111
WJun 24 · 05:35A. Ovriakh—111111113A. Kurtenko—631381
WJun 18 · 08:00A. Ovriakh—1111113A. Kurtenko—5890
WJun 17 · 08:35A. Ovriakh—11611113A. Kurtenko—611941
WMay 30 · 06:05A. Ovriakh—11101111113A. Kurtenko—13127762
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190WAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520
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