TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417182
Played Aug 13Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711511––––
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 56 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 58.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 9–8 Alina Ovriakh Alina Ovriakh has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1777 vs Ovriakh 1846
Ovriakh
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Ovriakh 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Ovriakh 60%
Ovriakh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +1 · Ovriakh +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ovriakh)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.80 / Ovriakh 1.91
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Ovriakh)+10.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417182
Plokhotniuk1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Ovriakh1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk5wins
AwayOvriakh5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk80%4 of 5
AwayOvriakh80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk6Ovriakh4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk5Ovriakh2n = 7Plokhotniuk took 5 of 7
S5Plokhotniuk1Ovriakh2n = 3Ovriakh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhP − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.5+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 176 vs 48 / 7560.2%64%106 / 176 vs 48 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhPlokhotniuk 1.80/Ovriakh 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovriakh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk—971191A. Ovriakh—11118113
LJul 23 · 10:03N. Plokhotniuk—411711102A. Ovriakh—119117123
LJul 23 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—112761A. Ovriakh—41111113
LJul 22 · 09:30N. Plokhotniuk—109111152A. Ovriakh—121198113
WJul 22 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk—11912123A. Ovriakh—81110101
LJul 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—48100A. Ovriakh—1111123
WJul 6 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—1511113A. Ovriakh—13750
WJun 25 · 08:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Ovriakh—9980
WJun 24 · 10:35N. Plokhotniuk—11128113A. Ovriakh—4101151
WJun 18 · 11:30N. Plokhotniuk—6101111113A. Ovriakh—11128472
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
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