TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417183
Played Aug 13Finished
Iolanta Yevtodii
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119711117119
Alina Ovriakh
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIolanta Yevtodii above · Alina Ovriakh below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Iolanta Yevtodii 7–6 Alina Ovriakh Alina Ovriakh has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ovriakh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yevtodii 1953 vs Ovriakh 1848
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yevtodii 100% vs Ovriakh 40%
Yevtodii
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yevtodii 80% vs Ovriakh 60%
Yevtodii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yevtodii +5 · Ovriakh +1
Yevtodii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Yevtodii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYevtodii 1.83 / Ovriakh 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Yevtodii)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417183
Yevtodii1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Ovriakh1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYevtodii5wins
AwayOvriakh5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYevtodii75%3 of 4
AwayOvriakh66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yevtodii4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S2Yevtodii4Ovriakh6n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Yevtodii5Ovriakh5n = 10split evenly
S4Yevtodii3Ovriakh5n = 8Ovriakh took 5 of 8
S5Yevtodii3Ovriakh0n = 3Yevtodii took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYevtodiiOvriakhY − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.239.5−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYevtodiiOvriakhBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 150 vs 47 / 7371.3%64.4%107 / 150 vs 47 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.52.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiYevtodii 1.83/Ovriakh 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 07:00I. Yevtodii—129311113A. Ovriakh—101111562
LJul 7 · 08:30I. Yevtodii—7590A. Ovriakh—1111113
WJun 25 · 04:30I. Yevtodii—711611123A. Ovriakh—118117102
WJun 24 · 12:05I. Yevtodii—611115113A. Ovriakh—11771172
WJun 18 · 05:00I. Yevtodii—111311113A. Ovriakh—915571
LJun 17 · 12:05I. Yevtodii—11111071A. Ovriakh—61312113
LMay 30 · 11:35I. Yevtodii—941171A. Ovriakh—11114113
LMay 29 · 06:30I. Yevtodii—5121481A. Ovriakh—111016113
LMay 6 · 09:05I. Yevtodii—541141A. Ovriakh—11116113
WMay 5 · 10:33I. Yevtodii—1111133A. Ovriakh—79110
I. Yevtodii10
WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113WAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.1714114113A. Kurtenko4.501271171WAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2541111113U. Dronova3.75116561WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii1.40361111113N. Plokhotniuk2.7511116792
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
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