TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406558
Played Aug 12Finished
Alina Ovriakh
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811611811––
Roksolana Budnyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeAlina Ovriakh to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlina Ovriakh above · Roksolana Budnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Alina Ovriakh at 62.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Alina Ovriakh 1–1 Roksolana Budnyk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ovriakh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ovriakh 1879 vs Budnyk 1690
Ovriakh
Wrong
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovriakh 80% vs Budnyk 60%
Ovriakh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovriakh 80% vs Budnyk 50%
Ovriakh
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovriakh -1 · Budnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvriakh 1.44 / Budnyk 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Ovriakh)-0.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406558
Ovriakh1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Budnyk2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOvriakh1wins
AwayBudnyk1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricOvriakhBudnykO − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.525.5+4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvriakhBudnykBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 70 vs 59 / 11365.7%52.2%46 / 70 vs 59 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvriakhOvriakh 1.44/Budnyk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Budnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh—97100R. Budnyk—1111123
WJul 6 · 04:30A. Ovriakh—1111113R. Budnyk—4670
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
R. Budnyk10
LAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 10:00A. Kurtenko2.2081150R. Budnyk1.611113113WAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova1.80911951R. Budnyk1.9111511113WAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 09:41A. Rzhevska3.75811115113R. Budnyk1.2511591172LJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25116411113R. Budnyk3.7581111982WJul 23 · 07:00R. Budnyk1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.206560WJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh1.4097100R. Budnyk2.751111123LJul 23 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.40631111A. Rzhevska2.7511117113LJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk1.281111113R. Budnyk3.509670
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