TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406559
Played Aug 12Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115911511––
Roksolana Budnyk
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Roksolana Budnyk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 6–6 Roksolana Budnyk Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dronova
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1591 vs Budnyk 1716
Budnyk
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 60% vs Budnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 70% vs Budnyk 40%
Dronova
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova -1 · Budnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dronova)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 1.80 / Budnyk 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dronova)+2.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406559
Dronova1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Budnyk1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDronova5wins
AwayBudnyk5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova60%3 of 5
AwayBudnyk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova5Budnyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Dronova4Budnyk6n = 10Budnyk took 6 of 10
S3Dronova4Budnyk6n = 10Budnyk took 6 of 10
S4Dronova4Budnyk3n = 7Dronova took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDronovaBudnykD − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.134.7−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaBudnykBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 106 vs 59 / 11043.4%53.6%46 / 106 vs 59 / 110Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaDronova 1.80/Budnyk 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Budnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova—911951R. Budnyk—11511113
LFeb 26 · 10:05U. Dronova—4850R. Budnyk—1111113
LFeb 25 · 13:40U. Dronova—1341061R. Budnyk—111112113
WFeb 11 · 10:05U. Dronova—1041111113R. Budnyk—12118912
WFeb 10 · 14:40U. Dronova—111211113R. Budnyk—1310951
LFeb 10 · 13:40U. Dronova—9780R. Budnyk—1111113
LJan 11 · 10:05U. Dronova—115481R. Budnyk—91111113
WJan 10 · 14:40U. Dronova—11112113R. Budnyk—781151
WSep 7 · 06:35U. Dronova—1112113R. Budnyk—51020
WAug 10 · 06:35U. Dronova—111111113R. Budnyk—913531
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
R. Budnyk10
LAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 10:00A. Kurtenko2.2081150R. Budnyk1.611113113WAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113WAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 09:41A. Rzhevska3.75811115113R. Budnyk1.2511591172LJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25116411113R. Budnyk3.7581111982WJul 23 · 07:00R. Budnyk1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.206560WJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh1.4097100R. Budnyk2.751111123LJul 23 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.40631111A. Rzhevska2.7511117113LJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk1.281111113R. Budnyk3.509670
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