TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466669
Played Aug 21Finished
Ulana Dronova
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111211511––––
Anna Rzhevska
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingUlana Dronova above · Anna Rzhevska below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 41 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 54.0%
41 points played in total.
H2H Ulana Dronova 0–5 Anna Rzhevska Ulana Dronova has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:24What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dronova
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Rzhevska
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dronova 1552 vs Rzhevska 1559
Rzhevska
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dronova 20% vs Rzhevska 60%
Rzhevska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dronova 40% vs Rzhevska 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dronova -3 · Rzhevska +1
Dronova
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rzhevska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDronova 1.80 / Rzhevska 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rzhevska)+5.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #12466669
Dronova1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Rzhevska1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDronova0wins
AwayRzhevska5wins
2 of 5 to a deciderRzhevska leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDronova0%0 of 4
AwayRzhevskan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dronova4Rzhevska1n = 5Dronova took 4 of 5
S2Dronova2Rzhevska3n = 5Rzhevska took 3 of 5
S3Dronova0Rzhevska5n = 5Rzhevska took 5 of 5
S4Dronova0Rzhevska4n = 4Rzhevska took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDronovaRzhevskaD − RBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match25.240.0−14.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDronovaRzhevskaBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 105 vs 144 / 26144.8%55.2%47 / 105 vs 144 / 261Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RzhevskaDronova 1.80/Rzhevska 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rzhevska · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rzhevska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova—1250A. Rzhevska—1111113
LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova—11114142A. Rzhevska—431111113
LAug 13 · 05:00U. Dronova—119691A. Rzhevska—71111113
LJul 16 · 09:00U. Dronova—115121A. Rzhevska—71111113
LApr 6 · 13:40U. Dronova—11117132A. Rzhevska—681111113
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113
A. Rzhevska10
WSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:10A. Rzhevska1.28911511113O. Kolbasenko3.5011211392WSep 6 · 10:40A. Rzhevska1.051211113A. Plashchynska8.5010560LSep 1 · 10:30A. Rzhevska1.28109100V. Kurtenko3.501211123WSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192LSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113WSep 1 · 06:00A. Rzhevska1.061111113A. Plashchynska8.007630WAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113
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