TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12461443
Played Aug 20Finished
Svitlana Yureneva
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114119811611511
Ulana Dronova
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched — 72.9% is still 72.9%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
72.9%
72.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSvitlana Yureneva above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 72.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Svitlana Yureneva 2–3 Ulana Dronova Svitlana Yureneva has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yureneva 1527 vs Dronova 1601
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yureneva 60% vs Dronova 20%
Yureneva
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yureneva 60% vs Dronova 30%
Yureneva
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yureneva +1 · Dronova -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Dronova) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYureneva 3.25 / Dronova 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Dronova)+3.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12461443
Yureneva3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Dronova1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeYureneva2wins
AwayDronova3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderDronova leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYurenevan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDronova66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yureneva2Dronova3n = 5Dronova took 3 of 5
S2Yureneva3Dronova2n = 5Yureneva took 3 of 5
S3Yureneva0Dronova5n = 5Dronova took 5 of 5
S4Yureneva1Dronova2n = 3Dronova took 2 of 3
S5Yureneva2Dronova1n = 3Yureneva took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricYurenevaDronovaY − DBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.642.8−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurenevaDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 593 vs 44 / 9761.6%45.4%365 / 593 vs 44 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaYureneva 3.25/Dronova 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva—11118652U. Dronova—491111113
LJul 16 · 05:30S. Yureneva—9860U. Dronova—1111113
LJul 15 · 11:10S. Yureneva—510100U. Dronova—1112123
WMay 21 · 10:30S. Yureneva—1518124113U. Dronova—1316141182
WMay 20 · 12:10S. Yureneva—711911113U. Dronova—11711542
S. Yureneva10
WSep 1 · 11:30S. Yureneva1.221181111113A. Plashchynska4.0081113452LSep 1 · 09:30V. Kurtenko1.911111113S. Yureneva1.804770WSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113LSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113LAug 21 · 09:45A. Rzhevska2.10511512123S. Yureneva1.671191110102WAug 21 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk3.00410120S. Yureneva1.361112143WAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770WAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113WAug 21 · 05:00S. Yureneva1.67971111113A. Rzhevska2.1011119482
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113
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