TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466670
Played Aug 21Finished
Yana Mykhailyk
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13116118111151012
Ulana Dronova
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeUlana Dronova to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYana Mykhailyk above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 98 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ulana Dronova at 73.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Yana Mykhailyk 2–2 Ulana Dronova Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Dronova
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailyk 1472 vs Dronova 1543
Dronova
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailyk 40% vs Dronova 20%
Mykhailyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailyk 40% vs Dronova 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailyk -2 · Dronova -4
Dronova
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Dronova) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (20%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailyk 3.40 / Dronova 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Dronova)-0.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12466670
Mykhailyk3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Dronova1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMykhailyk2wins
AwayDronova2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDronova66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailyk1Dronova3n = 4Dronova took 3 of 4
S2Mykhailyk3Dronova1n = 4Mykhailyk took 3 of 4
S3Mykhailyk3Dronova1n = 4Mykhailyk took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMykhailykDronovaM − DBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match32.835.0−2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailykDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 504 vs 46 / 10448%44.2%242 / 504 vs 46 / 104Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DronovaMykhailyk 3.40/Dronova 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Dronova · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dronova won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 16 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk—7530U. Dronova—1111113
LJul 15 · 16:40Y. Mykhailyk—51311662U. Dronova—1111811113
WMay 21 · 06:00Y. Mykhailyk—1111113U. Dronova—8860
WMay 20 · 13:40Y. Mykhailyk—91111113U. Dronova—118951
Y. Mykhailyk10
LSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 14:40Y. Mykhailyk1.221171111113A. Plashchynska4.0013117842WSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:40O. Melnik3.00561181Y. Mykhailyk1.3611118113WSep 6 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko1.3685110Y. Mykhailyk3.001111133WSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781LSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk1.251111113A. Plashchynska3.757870LSep 1 · 07:00V. Kurtenko1.301111113Y. Mykhailyk3.405760LSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113
U. Dronova10
LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113
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