TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466674
Played Aug 21Finished
Svitlana Yureneva
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117117––––
Polina Pashchenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 71.3% is still 71.3%
Graded at full timeSvitlana Yureneva to win
71.3%
71.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSvitlana Yureneva above · Polina Pashchenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Svitlana Yureneva at 71.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Svitlana Yureneva 11–2 Polina Pashchenko Polina Pashchenko has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Yureneva
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Yureneva
Correct
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yureneva 1532 vs Pashchenko 1499
Yureneva
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yureneva 60% vs Pashchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yureneva 50% vs Pashchenko 70%
Pashchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yureneva +2 · Pashchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Yureneva) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYureneva 1.53 / Pashchenko 2.38
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Yureneva)+8.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12466674
Yureneva1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Pashchenko2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYureneva9wins
AwayPashchenko1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderYureneva leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYureneva100%5 of 5
AwayPashchenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yureneva5Pashchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Yureneva6Pashchenko4n = 10Yureneva took 6 of 10
S3Yureneva8Pashchenko2n = 10Yureneva took 8 of 10
S4Yureneva5Pashchenko1n = 6Yureneva took 5 of 6
S5Yureneva3Pashchenko0n = 3Yureneva took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYurenevaPashchenkoY − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.934.6+5.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYurenevaPashchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime370 / 602 vs 64 / 11761.5%54.7%370 / 602 vs 64 / 117Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YurenevaYureneva 1.53/Pashchenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Yureneva · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Yureneva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva—1111113P. Pashchenko—3770
WAug 4 · 05:30S. Yureneva—711114123P. Pashchenko—117511102
WJul 30 · 05:30S. Yureneva—1111113P. Pashchenko—9470
WJul 21 · 11:00S. Yureneva—14711113P. Pashchenko—1211751
WJul 12 · 05:05S. Yureneva—41111113P. Pashchenko—119881
WJul 1 · 06:05S. Yureneva—1911113P. Pashchenko—17890
WJun 21 · 10:36S. Yureneva—111217113P. Pashchenko—9141561
LJun 21 · 07:35S. Yureneva—11960P. Pashchenko—1311113
WJun 19 · 09:00S. Yureneva—791111113P. Pashchenko—11118862
WJun 9 · 07:05S. Yureneva—311511113P. Pashchenko—11011872
S. Yureneva10
WSep 1 · 11:30S. Yureneva1.221181111113A. Plashchynska4.0081113452LSep 1 · 09:30V. Kurtenko1.911111113S. Yureneva1.804770WSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113LSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113LAug 21 · 09:45A. Rzhevska2.10511512123S. Yureneva1.671191110102WAug 21 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk3.00410120S. Yureneva1.361112143WAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113WAug 21 · 05:00S. Yureneva1.67971111113A. Rzhevska2.1011119482LAug 20 · 17:10S. Yureneva1.1710940A. Plashchynska4.501211113
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 08:30A. Rzhevska1.9171111113P. Pashchenko1.80117291LAug 21 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk1.5711118113P. Pashchenko2.25591131WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113WAug 16 · 16:10P. Pashchenko1.331111113O. Kolbasenko3.259840
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