TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466675
Played Aug 21Finished
Anna Rzhevska
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117112119––
Polina Pashchenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePolina Pashchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnna Rzhevska above · Polina Pashchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Polina Pashchenko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Anna Rzhevska 4–5 Polina Pashchenko Anna Rzhevska has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:24What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pashchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rzhevska 1538 vs Pashchenko 1498
Rzhevska
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rzhevska 80% vs Pashchenko 40%
Rzhevska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rzhevska 60% vs Pashchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rzhevska +2 · Pashchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rzhevska) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRzhevska 1.91 / Pashchenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rzhevska)+5.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #12466675
Rzhevska1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pashchenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRzhevska4wins
AwayPashchenko5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderPashchenko leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRzhevska80%4 of 5
AwayPashchenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rzhevska5Pashchenko4n = 9Rzhevska took 5 of 9
S2Rzhevska3Pashchenko6n = 9Pashchenko took 6 of 9
S3Rzhevska3Pashchenko6n = 9Pashchenko took 6 of 9
S4Rzhevska0Pashchenko4n = 4Pashchenko took 4 of 4
S5Rzhevska3Pashchenko1n = 4Rzhevska took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricRzhevskaPashchenkoR − PBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match34.138.1−4.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRzhevskaPashchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 259 vs 63 / 11554.8%54.8%142 / 259 vs 63 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RzhevskaRzhevska 1.91/Pashchenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rzhevska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rzhevska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 4 · 09:28A. Rzhevska—17811932P. Pashchenko—1511911113
LAug 4 · 04:30A. Rzhevska—88120P. Pashchenko—1111143
LAug 2 · 13:10A. Rzhevska—6560P. Pashchenko—1111103
WJul 30 · 11:00A. Rzhevska—1111113P. Pashchenko—9750
LJun 26 · 07:00A. Rzhevska—9770P. Pashchenko—1111113
WJun 21 · 09:05A. Rzhevska—111189123P. Pashchenko—941111102
WJun 19 · 06:00A. Rzhevska—111159113P. Pashchenko—89111162
LJun 5 · 10:00A. Rzhevska—5640P. Pashchenko—1111113
WMay 17 · 15:39A. Rzhevska—114127113P. Pashchenko—211101172
A. Rzhevska10
WSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:10A. Rzhevska1.28911511113O. Kolbasenko3.5011211392WSep 6 · 10:40A. Rzhevska1.051211113A. Plashchynska8.5010560LSep 1 · 10:30A. Rzhevska1.28109100V. Kurtenko3.501211123WSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192LSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113WSep 1 · 06:00A. Rzhevska1.061111113A. Plashchynska8.007630LSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770LAug 21 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk1.5711118113P. Pashchenko2.25591131WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113WAug 16 · 16:10P. Pashchenko1.331111113O. Kolbasenko3.259840
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