TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12440007
Played Aug 16Finished
Polina Pashchenko
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118114––––
Olha Kolbasenko
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched — 79.8% is still 79.8%
Graded at full timePolina Pashchenko to win
79.8%
79.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPolina Pashchenko above · Olha Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Polina Pashchenko at 79.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Polina Pashchenko 15–5 Olha Kolbasenko Olha Kolbasenko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Pashchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Pashchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pashchenko 1510 vs Kolbasenko 1397
Pashchenko
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pashchenko 60% vs Kolbasenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pashchenko 70% vs Kolbasenko 40%
Pashchenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pashchenko -1 · Kolbasenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Pashchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPashchenko 1.33 / Kolbasenko 3.25
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Pashchenko)+11.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12440007
Pashchenko1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kolbasenko3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePashchenko7wins
AwayKolbasenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPashchenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePashchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolbasenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pashchenko7Kolbasenko3n = 10Pashchenko took 7 of 10
S2Pashchenko6Kolbasenko4n = 10Pashchenko took 6 of 10
S3Pashchenko8Kolbasenko2n = 10Pashchenko took 8 of 10
S4Pashchenko4Kolbasenko1n = 5Pashchenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPashchenkoKolbasenkoP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.631.7+4.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPashchenkoKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 112 vs 207 / 41555.4%49.9%62 / 112 vs 207 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PashchenkoPashchenko 1.33/Kolbasenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.9%
Pashchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pashchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 16:10P. Pashchenko—1111113O. Kolbasenko—9840
WAug 9 · 14:40P. Pashchenko—1112113O. Kolbasenko—91050
WAug 2 · 15:46P. Pashchenko—111111143O. Kolbasenko—1386121
WAug 2 · 14:40P. Pashchenko—1111113O. Kolbasenko—3460
WJul 26 · 08:30P. Pashchenko—14611113O. Kolbasenko—1211661
LJul 18 · 07:00P. Pashchenko—11127372O. Kolbasenko—6101111113
WJul 10 · 17:03P. Pashchenko—11711113O. Kolbasenko—511971
LJul 10 · 16:00P. Pashchenko—9460O. Kolbasenko—1111113
LJul 7 · 10:34P. Pashchenko—66111192O. Kolbasenko—111169113
WJul 7 · 06:05P. Pashchenko—1311113O. Kolbasenko—11570
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 08:30A. Rzhevska1.9171111113P. Pashchenko1.80117291LAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770LAug 21 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk1.5711118113P. Pashchenko2.25591131WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 6 · 15:42A. Plashchynska1.83811101182O. Kolbasenko1.83115128113WSep 6 · 14:10O. Melnik3.001031151O. Kolbasenko1.3612113113LSep 6 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko1.30115611102A. Plashchynska3.40211116123LSep 6 · 12:10A. Rzhevska1.28911511113O. Kolbasenko3.5011211392LSep 6 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko1.3685110Y. Mykhailyk3.001111133WAug 16 · 17:10V. Kurtenko1.307990O. Kolbasenko3.401111113WAug 16 · 14:40O. Melnik3.2511812652O. Kolbasenko1.335111011113WAug 16 · 12:40A. Plashchynska3.40111915102O. Kolbasenko1.307111113123LAug 16 · 10:40O. Ponko3.751111133O. Kolbasenko1.2598110WAug 9 · 15:39O. Kolbasenko1.441111113O. Melnik2.635830
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