TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12440012
Played Aug 16Finished
Olga Melnik
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1158111210611511
Olha Kolbasenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:16 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeOlha Kolbasenko to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOlga Melnik above · Olha Kolbasenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Olha Kolbasenko at 73.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Olga Melnik 14–20 Olha Kolbasenko Olga Melnik has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kolbasenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Kolbasenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1227 vs Kolbasenko 1378
Kolbasenko
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 0% vs Kolbasenko 60%
Kolbasenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 30% vs Kolbasenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -5 · Kolbasenko +1
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kolbasenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolbasenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 3.25 / Kolbasenko 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kolbasenko)+3.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12440012
Melnik3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kolbasenko1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik5wins
AwayKolbasenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik80%4 of 5
AwayKolbasenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Kolbasenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik3Kolbasenko7n = 10Kolbasenko took 7 of 10
S3Melnik5Kolbasenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Melnik4Kolbasenko2n = 6Melnik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKolbasenkoM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.734.0+0.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKolbasenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 256 vs 205 / 41230.1%49.8%77 / 256 vs 205 / 412Avg sets wonper match1.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolbasenkoMelnik 3.25/Kolbasenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Kolbasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolbasenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 11:10O. Melnik—1111113O. Kolbasenko—5750
LAug 2 · 12:40O. Melnik—9890O. Kolbasenko—1111113
WJul 26 · 10:18O. Melnik—11711113O. Kolbasenko—611421
LJul 26 · 06:30O. Melnik—391111O. Kolbasenko—1111993
LJul 18 · 08:00O. Melnik—7750O. Kolbasenko—1111113
WJul 10 · 14:00O. Melnik—139117113O. Kolbasenko—111151192
LJul 5 · 10:38O. Melnik—11781192O. Kolbasenko—911117113
WJul 5 · 08:35O. Melnik—101111113O. Kolbasenko—129861
WMay 31 · 13:10O. Melnik—11116113O. Kolbasenko—561171
LMay 24 · 16:40O. Melnik—81080O. Kolbasenko—1112113
O. Melnik10
LSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 14:10O. Melnik3.001031151O. Kolbasenko1.3612113113LSep 6 · 12:40O. Melnik3.00561181Y. Mykhailyk1.3611118113LSep 6 · 11:40O. Melnik2.636380A. Plashchynska1.441111113WAug 16 · 16:40O. Ponko1.737670O. Melnik2.001111113LAug 16 · 15:40O. Melnik2.63712111152A. Plashchynska1.441110135113LAug 16 · 13:10O. Melnik4.00781271V. Kurtenko1.22111110113LAug 16 · 11:10O. Melnik4.50113691P. Pashchenko1.1771111113LAug 9 · 15:39O. Kolbasenko1.441111113O. Melnik2.635830LAug 9 · 14:10V. Kurtenko1.221111109113O. Melnik4.0077121172
O. Kolbasenko10
WSep 6 · 15:42A. Plashchynska1.83811101182O. Kolbasenko1.83115128113WSep 6 · 14:10O. Melnik3.001031151O. Kolbasenko1.3612113113LSep 6 · 13:10O. Kolbasenko1.30115611102A. Plashchynska3.40211116123LSep 6 · 12:10A. Rzhevska1.28911511113O. Kolbasenko3.5011211392LSep 6 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko1.3685110Y. Mykhailyk3.001111133WAug 16 · 17:10V. Kurtenko1.307990O. Kolbasenko3.401111113LAug 16 · 16:10P. Pashchenko1.331111113O. Kolbasenko3.259840WAug 16 · 12:40A. Plashchynska3.40111915102O. Kolbasenko1.307111113123LAug 16 · 10:40O. Ponko3.751111133O. Kolbasenko1.2598110WAug 9 · 15:39O. Kolbasenko1.441111113O. Melnik2.635830
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