TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12440009
Played Aug 16Finished
Olga Melnik
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117311611911––
Polina Pashchenko
Away
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched — 90.4% is still 90.4%
Graded at full timePolina Pashchenko to win
90.4%
90.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOlga Melnik above · Polina Pashchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Polina Pashchenko at 90.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Olga Melnik 1–8 Polina Pashchenko Olga Melnik has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Pashchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-8 in 9
Pashchenko
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1240 vs Pashchenko 1489
Pashchenko
Correct
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Pashchenko 80%
Pashchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 40% vs Pashchenko 70%
Pashchenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -3 · Pashchenko -1
Melnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% — Strong (leans Pashchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 4.50 / Pashchenko 1.17
Signal prob.10% / 90%
Edge (Pashchenko)+11.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12440009
Melnik4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pashchenko1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMelnik1wins
AwayPashchenko8wins
Pashchenko leads 8–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPashchenko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik2Pashchenko7n = 9Pashchenko took 7 of 9
S2Melnik2Pashchenko7n = 9Pashchenko took 7 of 9
S3Melnik1Pashchenko8n = 9Pashchenko took 8 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away667%
These 9 meetings
MetricMelnikPashchenkoM − PBasisWins18−7in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match24.834.0−9.2per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikPashchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 254 vs 59 / 10830.3%54.6%77 / 254 vs 59 / 108Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PashchenkoMelnik 4.50/Pashchenko 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
90.4%
Pashchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pashchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 9 · 13:10O. Melnik—511971P. Pashchenko—11611113
LAug 2 · 11:40O. Melnik—7550P. Pashchenko—1111113
LJul 26 · 05:30O. Melnik—128761P. Pashchenko—101111113
LJul 18 · 05:30O. Melnik—106100P. Pashchenko—1211123
WJul 12 · 06:05O. Melnik—1111113P. Pashchenko—8940
LJul 10 · 13:00O. Melnik—91060P. Pashchenko—1112113
LJun 21 · 06:05O. Melnik—3950P. Pashchenko—1111113
LMay 24 · 10:40O. Melnik—11680P. Pashchenko—1311113
LMay 17 · 16:39O. Melnik—5550P. Pashchenko—1111113
O. Melnik10
LSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 14:10O. Melnik3.001031151O. Kolbasenko1.3612113113LSep 6 · 12:40O. Melnik3.00561181Y. Mykhailyk1.3611118113LSep 6 · 11:40O. Melnik2.636380A. Plashchynska1.441111113WAug 16 · 16:40O. Ponko1.737670O. Melnik2.001111113LAug 16 · 15:40O. Melnik2.63712111152A. Plashchynska1.441110135113LAug 16 · 14:40O. Melnik3.2511812652O. Kolbasenko1.335111011113LAug 16 · 13:10O. Melnik4.00781271V. Kurtenko1.22111110113LAug 9 · 15:39O. Kolbasenko1.441111113O. Melnik2.635830LAug 9 · 14:10V. Kurtenko1.221111109113O. Melnik4.0077121172
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 08:30A. Rzhevska1.9171111113P. Pashchenko1.80117291LAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770LAug 21 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk1.5711118113P. Pashchenko2.25591131WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.