TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12466671
Played Aug 21Finished
Yana Mykhailyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115119811113––
Polina Pashchenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeYana Mykhailyk to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYana Mykhailyk above · Polina Pashchenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 69 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Yana Mykhailyk at 61.9%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yana Mykhailyk 12–5 Polina Pashchenko Polina Pashchenko has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Mykhailyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Mykhailyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailyk 1485 vs Pashchenko 1525
Pashchenko
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailyk 40% vs Pashchenko 80%
Pashchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailyk 50% vs Pashchenko 80%
Pashchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailyk -1 · Pashchenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mykhailyk) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailyk 1.57 / Pashchenko 2.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Pashchenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12466671
Mykhailyk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pashchenko2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailyk8wins
AwayPashchenko2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMykhailyk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailyk87.5%7 of 8
AwayPashchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailyk8Pashchenko2n = 10Mykhailyk took 8 of 10
S2Mykhailyk7Pashchenko3n = 10Mykhailyk took 7 of 10
S3Mykhailyk6Pashchenko4n = 10Mykhailyk took 6 of 10
S4Mykhailyk2Pashchenko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailykPashchenkoM − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.429.4+5.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailykPashchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 501 vs 63 / 11348.1%55.8%241 / 501 vs 63 / 113Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MykhailykMykhailyk 1.57/Pashchenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Mykhailyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mykhailyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 08:30Y. Mykhailyk—1111123P. Pashchenko—76100
WAug 2 · 10:40Y. Mykhailyk—1111113P. Pashchenko—5680
WJul 26 · 04:30Y. Mykhailyk—11116113P. Pashchenko—991181
WJul 21 · 06:30Y. Mykhailyk—1111113P. Pashchenko—6670
WJul 18 · 08:30Y. Mykhailyk—1111113P. Pashchenko—8620
WJul 12 · 09:05Y. Mykhailyk—1211113P. Pashchenko—10390
LJul 7 · 07:35Y. Mykhailyk—116681P. Pashchenko—91111113
WJul 1 · 10:04Y. Mykhailyk—11911310P. Pashchenko—611776
LJul 1 · 09:05Y. Mykhailyk—8660P. Pashchenko—1111113
WJun 26 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk—414811163P. Pashchenko—1112114142
Y. Mykhailyk10
LSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 14:40Y. Mykhailyk1.221171111113A. Plashchynska4.0013117842WSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:40O. Melnik3.00561181Y. Mykhailyk1.3611118113WSep 6 · 11:10O. Kolbasenko1.3685110Y. Mykhailyk3.001111133WSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781LSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192WSep 1 · 08:00Y. Mykhailyk1.251111113A. Plashchynska3.757870LSep 1 · 07:00V. Kurtenko1.301111113Y. Mykhailyk3.405760LSep 1 · 05:30Y. Mykhailyk3.00811651S. Yureneva1.3611711113
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 1 · 11:00Y. Mykhailyk1.8011411113P. Pashchenko1.91811781WSep 1 · 10:00A. Plashchynska6.004390P. Pashchenko1.111111113WSep 1 · 08:30V. Kurtenko1.73111113552P. Pashchenko2.00481511113WSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113WSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113WAug 21 · 10:14P. Pashchenko2.2511119113Y. Mykhailyk1.57461141LAug 21 · 08:30A. Rzhevska1.9171111113P. Pashchenko1.80117291LAug 21 · 07:00S. Yureneva1.531111113P. Pashchenko2.383770WAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113WAug 16 · 16:10P. Pashchenko1.331111113O. Kolbasenko3.259840
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