TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406567
Played Aug 12Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214119811911––
Roksolana Budnyk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Roksolana Budnyk below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 83.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 15–3 Roksolana Budnyk Roksolana Budnyk has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-3 in 18
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1820 vs Budnyk 1664
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 60% vs Budnyk 40%
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Budnyk 30%
Plokhotniuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -2 · Budnyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.25 / Budnyk 3.75
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+8.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406567
Plokhotniuk1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Budnyk3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk9wins
AwayBudnyk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk88.9%8 of 9
AwayBudnykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk9Budnyk1n = 10Plokhotniuk took 9 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk6Budnyk4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk6Budnyk4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk6Budnyk0n = 6Plokhotniuk took 6 of 6
S5Plokhotniuk2Budnyk1n = 3Plokhotniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukBudnykP − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.830.5+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukBudnykBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 169 vs 57 / 11161%51.4%103 / 169 vs 57 / 111Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.25/Budnyk 3.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83.8%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Budnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk—116411113R. Budnyk—81111982
WJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—9670
WJul 6 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—6950
WMar 26 · 07:35N. Plokhotniuk—11118133R. Budnyk—5911111
WMar 25 · 15:10N. Plokhotniuk—11118113R. Budnyk—661181
LMar 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—11521152R. Budnyk—811115113
WFeb 26 · 08:05N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—4960
WFeb 25 · 18:10N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—2440
WFeb 11 · 11:35N. Plokhotniuk—1081211113R. Budnyk—121110392
WFeb 10 · 15:40N. Plokhotniuk—111011113R. Budnyk—612741
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
R. Budnyk10
LAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 10:00A. Kurtenko2.2081150R. Budnyk1.611113113WAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113WAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova1.80911951R. Budnyk1.9111511113LJul 23 · 09:41A. Rzhevska3.75811115113R. Budnyk1.2511591172LJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25116411113R. Budnyk3.7581111982WJul 23 · 07:00R. Budnyk1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.206560WJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh1.4097100R. Budnyk2.751111123LJul 23 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.40631111A. Rzhevska2.7511117113LJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk1.281111113R. Budnyk3.509670
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